RacingTrends For Park Hill (Doncaster) Stakes

4.10 Doncaster – Park Hill (Doncaster) Stakes – Listed (6f) 2yo


Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 14 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of £3.46 (ROI +24.7%).
Price: Horses priced 11/1 or shorter have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
LTO favourite: 5 of the last 10 winners were favourite LTO.
LTO Price: 8 of the last 10 winners had an SP of 8/1 or less on their last start.
Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had run within the past 24 days.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all LTO winners would have produced a profit of £5.13 (ROI +16.5%).
Trainers: 2 winners a piece for Brian Meehan and Mark Johnston.
Distance LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners raced over 6f LTO.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at York LTO have produced 5 winners from 17 for a small profit of £2.13 (ROI +12.5%).


Female runners: Just 1 win from 19 for fillies for a loss of £16.50 (ROI -86.8%).


Breeding: British bred runners have provided 5 winners from 47 (SR 10.6%); Irish bred runners have provided 4 winners from 37 (SR 10.8); US bred runners have 1 winner from 11 (SR 9.1%); other countries combined are 0 from q (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: This race has plenty of positive trends. Favourites have a good record as do LTO favourites and in general the market has got this race right – 9 winners priced 11/1 or shorter and just one big shock at 50/1 (Imperial Guest in 2008). Horses that ran over 6f LTO do have an edge winning 90% of the races from 65% of the total runners. LTO winners also should be noted. Both Brian Meehan and Mark Johnston have been successful in the race twice (Johnston also won it in 2001).

Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
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