Royal Ascot 2011 – trends and stats by David Renham
Royal Ascot 2011 – trends and stats by David Renham
This piece on Royal Ascot is split into two sections. The first section looks at some general stats for the meeting while the second part focuses on some of the main races from a trends perspective. The data used comes from 2000 to 2010 although I have excluded the meeting when it was held at York in 2005 in both sections.
All profits / losses are quoted to 1pt level win stakes; ROI = return on investment; SR = strike rate; LTO = last time out.
In the past I have grouped all race data together but this year I am splitting the data into two – firstly focusing on Group and Listed races; secondly focusing on handicap races.
All Group/Listed races – 2000 to 2010
Firstly let us look at market position:
Starting Price Rank
| SP Rank | Wins | Runners | SR (%) | Profit / loss | ROI (%) |
| 1 | 64 | 208 | 30.8 | +£10.72 | +5.2 |
| 2 | 36 | 197 | 18.3 | +£8.99 | +4.6 |
| 3 | 20 | 209 | 9.6 | -£68.00 | -32.5 |
| 4 | 16 | 191 | 8.4 | -£59.50 | -31.2 |
| 5 | 12 | 181 | 6.6 | -£56.50 | -31.2 |
| 6 | 13 | 221 | 5.9 | -£57.00 | -25.8 |
| 7+ | 29 | 1253 | 2.3 | -£502.00 | -40.1 |
Both favourites and second favourites have shown a small profit to SP which goes to show that the market is an excellent guide in Group and Listed races at the Royal meeting. It seems best to focus your attention there. Horses 7th or bigger in the betting have a very low strike rate, and the results of runners priced 33/1 or bigger reads a dismal 6 wins from 662 runners.
Age
In 3yo+ / all age Group/Listed races, let us compare the performance of different age groups:
| Age | Wins | Runners | SR (%) | Profit / loss | ROI (%) |
| 3 | 4 | 72 | 5.6 | +£23.00 | +31.9 |
| 4 | 27 | 334 | 8.1 | -£141.12 | -42.3 |
| 5 | 19 | 207 | 9.2 | -£70.17 | -33.9 |
| 6 | 12 | 104 | 11.5 | +£29.70 | +28.6 |
| 7 | 3 | 53 | 5.7 | -£33.63 | -63.4 |
| 8+ | 1 | 50 | 2.0 | -£47.50 | -95.0 |
5 and 6yos have the best strike rates and look the best value, which is perhaps a little surprising. Horses aged 7 and older struggle and are best avoided.
Trainers
Trainers who perform consistently well at this meeting are few and far between purely due to the fact that this is such a competitive meeting. One would expect it to be harder to obtain winners in Group/Listed contests – the table shows trainers who have saddled at least 20 runners with a strike rate of 12% or more:
| Trainer | Wins | Runners | SR (%) | Profit / loss | ROI (%) |
| Mark Johnston | 18 | 78 | 23.1 | +£55.10 | +70.6 |
| William Haggas | 5 | 27 | 18.5 | +£37.00 | +137.0 |
| Aidan O’Brien | 26 | 163 | 16.0 | -£27.31 | -16.8 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 16 | 112 | 14.3 | -£32.87 | -29.4 |
| Marcus Tregoning | 3 | 23 | 13.0 | +£3.50 | +15.2 |
| Saeed Bin Suroor | 16 | 126 | 12.7 | -£30.35 | -24.1 |
| Peter Chapple-Hyam | 3 | 25 | 12.0 | -£9.75 | -39.0 |
Mark Johnston has a seriously impressive record – to produce a strike rate of 23% is quite remarkable although it should be noted that 11 of these 18 winners came between 2000 and 2003. Having said that, he did saddle 2 winners from 5 in these contests last year, so he is still a trainer to keep a close eye on. John Dunlop (0 from 45), Kevin Ryan (0 from 29) and Dandy Nicholls (0 from 28) are trainers to be wary of in top class races.
Jockeys
Let me look at jockeys now– the table shows all jockeys that have ridden in at least 40 Group/Listed contests:
| Jockey | Wins | Runners | SR (%) | Profit / loss | ROI (%) |
| Johnny Murtagh | 23 | 111 | 20.7 | +£89.40 | +80.5 |
| Olivier Peslier | 7 | 43 | 16.3 | +£27.88 | +64.8 |
| Steve Drowne | 5 | 40 | 12.5 | +£94.50 | +236.3 |
| Kieren Fallon | 12 | 98 | 12.2 | -£38.05 | -38.8 |
| Richard Hills | 9 | 78 | 11.5 | -£23.42 | -30.0 |
| Frankie Dettori | 17 | 150 | 11.3 | -£45.47 | -30.3 |
| Richard Hughes | 13 | 115 | 11.3 | -£12.30 | -10.7 |
| Jamie Spencer | 9 | 99 | 9.1 | +£23.63 | +23.9 |
| Philip Robinson | 4 | 45 | 8.9 | -£26.50 | -58.9 |
| Eddie Ahern | 3 | 41 | 7.3 | -£11.75 | -28.7 |
| Martin Dwyer | 3 | 45 | 6.7 | -£14.50 | -32.2 |
| Jimmy Fortune | 6 | 91 | 6.6 | -£55.17 | -60.6 |
| Michael Hills | 4 | 63 | 6.4 | -£18.00 | -28.6 |
| Ryan Moore | 5 | 84 | 6.0 | -£56.27 | -67.0 |
| Darryll Holland | 3 | 70 | 4.3 | -£49.90 | -71.3 |
| Ted Durcan | 1 | 49 | 2.0 | -£44.00 | -89.8 |
Johnny Murtagh has an excellent record although he has landed several plum rides especially when riding for Aidan O’Brien.
Handicap races – 2000 to 2010
As before let me look at market position:
Starting Price Rank
| SP Rank | Wins | Runners | SR (%) | Profit / loss | ROI (%) |
| 1 | 11 | 104 | 10.6 | -£39.38 | -37.9 |
| 2 | 11 | 103 | 10.7 | -£28.50 | -27.7 |
| 3 | 15 | 105 | 14.3 | +£40.00 | +38.1 |
| 4 | 13 | 112 | 11.6 | +£29.50 | +26.3 |
| 5 | 6 | 97 | 6.2 | -£19.00 | -19.6 |
| 6 | 6 | 101 | 5.9 | -£24.00 | -23.8 |
| 7+ | 33 | 1499 | 2.2 | -£712.00 | -47.5 |
Completely different results in handicaps compared to the Group/listed results with the top two in the betting showing fairly severe losses. Remarkably 3rd and 4th favourites have actually made a profit in handicaps at the meeting. Horses 7th or bigger in the betting once again are best avoided. Indeed horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided only 4 winners from 736 runners.
Age
There seems little to be gleaned from the all age handicap results in terms of age. Only point worth noting is that horses aged 9 or older have provided 0 winners from 34.
Trainers
I have looked at trainers who have saddled at least 3 handicap winners in the past 10 years. Only 10 trainers have managed this feat, 2 of which (Michael Jarvis and Martin Pipe) are now retired:
| Trainer | Wins | Runners | SR (%) | Profit / loss | ROI (%) |
| James Fanshawe | 4 | 20 | 20.0 | +£18.50 | +92.5 |
| Hughie Morrison | 4 | 31 | 12.9 | +£25.00 | +80.7 |
| Michael Bell | 3 | 27 | 11.1 | +£18.50 | +68.5 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 7 | 65 | 10.8 | +£4.00 | +6.2 |
| Roger Charlton | 3 | 28 | 10.7 | +£24.00 | +85.7 |
| John Gosden | 5 | 55 | 9.1 | +£9.00 | +16.4 |
| Ed Dunlop | 4 | 47 | 8.5 | +£0.00 | +0.0 |
| Mark Johnston | 7 | 115 | 6.1 | -£19.50 | -17.0 |
Clearly these trainers must be respected in handicaps, but their strike rates are low so long losing runs will occur. For the record Dandy Nicholls and Mick Channon have saddled 74 runners each and managed just 2 wins apiece.
Jockeys
Finally a look at jockeys in handicaps:
| Jockey | Wins | Runners | SR (%) | Profit / loss | ROI (%) |
| Johnny Murtagh | 7 | 45 | 15.6 | +£44.50 | +98.9 |
| Franny Norton | 3 | 31 | 9.7 | +£23.00 | +74.2 |
| Jimmy Fortune | 5 | 53 | 9.4 | +£30.00 | +56.6 |
| Richard Hughes | 7 | 77 | 9.1 | +£15.50 | +20.1 |
| Kieren Fallon | 5 | 58 | 8.6 | -£0.50 | -0.9 |
| Ryan Moore | 4 | 51 | 7.8 | -£19.50 | -38.2 |
| Steve Drowne | 4 | 51 | 7.8 | +£29.00 | +56.9 |
| Jamie Spencer | 5 | 65 | 7.7 | -£16.00 | -24.6 |
| Frankie Dettori | 5 | 70 | 7.1 | +£0.00 | +0.0 |
| Martin Dwyer | 3 | 51 | 5.9 | -£6.00 | -11.8 |
Johnny Murtagh heads the list once more and clearly is a jockey who following at the Royal meeting. However, with low strike rates generally for jockeys backing specific jockeys is angle that would require much patience.
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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