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Betting Tip For The Derby

June 4, 2011 By sports betting blog Leave a Comment

Guy from Mathematician Betting gives us his quick thoughts on The Derby.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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The Derby Epson 4.00

9/4 Carlton House, 4/1 Recital, 11/2 Pour Moi, 13/2 Seville
10/1 Native Khan, 16/1 Ocean War, 16/1 Vadamar
25/1 Masked Marvel, 25/1 Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee
100/1 Pisco Sour, Marhaba Malyoon, 500/1 Castlemorris King.

My quick thoughts on the Derby.

The Derby always gets confusing as you read and hear positives and negatives for everything.
Throw in the injury scare for the favourite – Two Aidan O’Brien horses hard to split and a
French horse thats carrying serious confidence.
Just for the record there is a reasonably strong draw bias here based on the following.

* Epsom has 25 races since 2005
* Thats 25 races with between 10 and 14 runners like today
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a poor 1-70 record
* Horses drawn 13 or more were 0-18
* Horses drawn 4-12 are the best places
* Horses drawn 5-11 come out best
* Horses drawn 5-11 won 22 of the 25 races

He may win and I was impressed with his win at York but I am opposing
CARLTON HOUSE on stamina doubts.
I dont want a horse from a Mile like NATIVE KHAN especially without a
good draw. RECITAL throws up a dilemma with his ungainly
action but he will be a different horse today. I think this will come down to
RECITAL or POUR MOI one being the saver.

Selection – RECITAL 11/2 Ladbrokes Blue Square Bet365
Saver – POUR MOI  you can get 13/2 Coral and VC

Nb Betfred are running a very good concession on this race
of offering losing stakes back if Carlton House wins the Derby.
That’s a reasonably generous perk and may swing me to stake there
possibly during the shows as their early odds are a bit tight on the above.

A note to each way backers amongst you Bet365 and William Hill are offering 1/3 for a place.

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Top Ratings Bets

May 27, 2011 By ProGambler Links Leave a Comment

Paul Morris is an ex Bookmaker’s senior trader.
He now uses the knowledge he gained in that job
to provide clients of his service ratings based
horse racing tips and betting advice.

For More Info Click Here ==> Top Ratings Bets

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Top Ratings Bets

May 27, 2011 By ProGambler Links Leave a Comment

Paul Morris is an ex Bookmaker’s senior trader.
He now uses the knowledge he gained in that job
to provide clients of his service ratings based
horse racing tips and betting advice.

For More Info Click Here ==> Top Ratings Bets

Filed Under: Betting Sites Tagged With: , , ,

Thirsk Racing Tip

May 14, 2011 By sports betting blog Leave a Comment

T h i r s k 3.15

7/2 Dream Win, 7/2 Extraterrestrial, 9/2 Mountain Cat
11/2 Daring Dream, 13/2 Academy Blues, 10/1 Chosen Forever
12/1 Champagne Style, 16/1 Without Prejudice, Aerodynamic.

This is a Mile Handicap. I looked at all of these races and
I feel EXTRATERRESTRIAL is questionable as favourite.
He is well handicapped but exposed horses aged 6 or more
with 1 run this year coming up in trip had a 1-42 record in
254 similar races. That sole winner had a recent race and
he has been off 41 days and I see him as unsafe. That said
Do Not lay him. Not when well handicapped and when we
have a host of miserable profiles. DARING DREAM fails
similar angles. MOUNTAIN CAT is unsafe winning after
an absence at his age. DREAM WIN is the wrong age for
a lightly raced debutant. CHOSEN FOREVER has a long
absence. My best profile is ACADEMY BLUES. He was
below par last time but had excuses when beaten at Ascot
and I found 3 winners like him which is more than I can
say for any others. ACADEMY BLUES is my selection.

10/1 each way at Bet365, BoyleSports , Coral

Guy

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To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips <==

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Racing Tip For Thirsk

April 30, 2011 By sports betting blog Leave a Comment

Thirsk 4.10

9/2 Karaka Jack, 5/1 Dubai Dynamo, 6/1 Northern Fling
7/1 Arry´s Orse, 8/1 Reel Buddy Star, 8/1 Summer Dancer
10/1 Everymanforhimself, Ginger Ted, 12/1 Illustrious Prince 20/1 Qadar, 25/1 Arabian Pride, 25/1 Bond Fastrac.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* REEL BUDDY STAR is exposed absent 7 + months
* Thats a lot for horse on a career mark
* Ignore the horses from 3yo handicaps
* BOND FASTRAC – ARABIAN PRIDE fail that
* Horses drawn in stall 1-2 have underperformed
* 30 races here since 2008 with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2 have a 1-56 record
* SUMMER DANCER has a bad draw and modest profile
* GINGER TED has a bad draw and an unsafe profile
* QADAR is 0-27 on Grass and vulnerable
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF – Weight and absence is a worry
* ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE – Not completely out of this
* I dont like the massive stable downgrade he had this winter
* I wouldnt see him as progressive because of that

SHORTLIST

* NORTHERN FLING – Shaky profile but a possible
* I’d like another run this year or a shorter absence
* ARRY´S ORSE – Almost right good enough to respect
* KARAKA JACK – Well treated and good profile
* DUBAI DYNAMO – Serious chance back on fast ground
* KARAKA JACK and DUBAI DYNAMO stand out to me
* DUBAI DYNAMO is a saver
* KARAKA is a win bet

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Provided by Guy Ward.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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Horse Racing Tip For Newbury

March 26, 2011 By sports betting blog Leave a Comment

NEWBURY 3.25 – THEATRE DANCE 6/1 Each Way

THEATRE DANCE is a horse that might unsettle
us especially if he has to be pushed a bit early but I
have negatives in the race. He is from a stable that
are on fire. He’s well handicapped and must now be
fit for the 1st time this season and I like his chance.

NEWBURY 3.25

7/2 Ogee, 5/1 Rey Nacarado, 6/1 Maktu, 8/1 Briery Fox
8/1 Scots Dragoon 8/1 Theatre Dance, 10/1 Double Dizzy
12/1 Noble Crusader , 20/1 Burren Legend.

* No Preview just the profiles I did not like
* The following are all Negatives with Poor Profiles

NOBLE CRUSADER – Wrong coming from 20f or less
MAKTU – Too much weight with a step up in trip
OGEE – Not convinced with 2 runs this year
BRIERY FOX – Too old for 1-2-3 runs this year
BURREN LEGEND – Didnt do enough last time
SCOTS DRAGOON – Exposed from Novice Chase no thanks

SELECTION – THEATRE DANCE each way is my choice

6/1 various spots inc Sky Bet365 Tote VC BoyleSports Blue Square

Guy Ward

To visit Guys site click here ==> horse racing tips

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Free Racing Tip For Saturday

February 19, 2011 By sports betting blog Leave a Comment

Another comprehensive analysis piece today from Guy Ward over at the mathematician site.

To visit his site click here ==>  Horse Racing Tipster

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HAYDOCK 3.20

Totesport.com Grand National Trial
(Handicap Chase) Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m4f

11/2 West End Rocker, 13/2 Carruthers, 7/1 Mobaasher
8/1 King Fontaine, 8/1 Silver By Nature, 9/1 Le Beau Bai
9/1 Nicto De Beauchene, 10/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Sarde
20/1 Ballyfitz, 25/1 Etxalar, 25/1 Madison Du Berlais
33/1 Jaunty Journey, 40/1 Sound Accord.

* This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase.
* Haydock’s has had 14 renewals of this race

This is a Grand National trial and I think we should split the runners
into two categories. First of all the in form horses in the race that ran
very well last time out and who are likely to be here to do their best.
Secondly the horses well beaten last time that might be using the race
to put the finishing touches on their Grand National chance.
Thats certainly looks like it has happened in the past as only In Form horses win this race.

* Last time out winners won 6 past renewals
* Last time out seconds won 4 past renewals
* Last time out 1st 2nd or 3rd won 12 of the 14 renewals
* Only 2 of the past winners were not placed last time
* One of these was 5th last time but had a long absence
* Another Fell at the 1st on their last run but won before it

I think you need to be against the horses that didnt run
very well last time. SILVER BY NATURE looks one to
oppose beaten too far last time and its interesting only 2
of the 14 winners carried 11st 4lbs or more. I would also
be against MADISON DU BERLAIS and CARRUTHERS
both high weights and not doing enough last time. Harder
to rule out CARRUTHERS. He isnt too unlike the winner
in 2008 (Miko De Beauchene) who had won the Chepstow
Welsh National and won this after a break aged 8 absent a
fair while. CARRUTHERS though has a longer break and
was well beaten last time and is only a small horse who is
best in a very small field and has never been placed in any
prior handicap. SOUND ACCORD – JAUNTY JOURNEY
and ETXALAR are all horses that failed to do enough last
time out. I dont see BALLYFITZ as straight enough to be
winning and you’d expect him to be laid out for Aintree if
he gets in that race. The only winners from a Novice race
ran within 2 weeks and MAJOR MALARKEY has got 66
days absence and No past winners came from any Novice
Handicap to win. I’ve looked at every Handicap Chase in
March and Febuary in Class 2 and Higher and thats all 329
races at any distance in those grades. If you look at 7 year
olds that have No Graded form before and also have 13 or
more career starts you do not find many winners and none
were like SARDE. None had as long an absence or won at
this distance and none managed to win having only 2 runs
that season and I dont see SARDE having enough to win
this. There is an interesting angle about backclass because
12 of the 14 winners of this race had past form in either
a Listed or Graded race before. KING FONTAINE doesn’t
have that. He seems to have plenty of weight for a horse
without it. The only winners of this race without Listed or
Graded form had much less weight than he does and having
been raised 15lbs for his last win he has quite a bit to prove
and his trainer has said the 15lbs rise was harsh.

SHORTLIST

WEST END ROCKER
MOBAASHER
NICTO DE BEAUCHENE
LE BEAU BAI

The issue with WEST END ROCKER s whether he has
recovered from a hard race at Warwick. Similar winners
of that race finished 4 6 11 in this race. Statistically he  is
respectable and earns a shortlist place comfortably.
I like MOBAASHER as he is a promising chaser who
has a progressive profile and looks well handicapped on his
hurdles form. Against him is he hasnt raced over fences this
season yet and I hope it doesnt catch him out.
It’s interesting NICTO DE BEAUCHENE’s full brother has
won this race before much as he was classier. He lacks a
run in Graded Class but both winners that lacked that did
look similar with a months break and a good last run and
I see NICTO DE BEAUCHENE as a serious runner. The
other option is mud loving LE BEAU BAI who finished
3rd in this race last year and should be thereabouts again.
The overnight rain swings me towards LE BEAU BAI.

SELECTION

LE BEAU BAI 9/1 in various spots
Ladbrokes , Sky , Bet365, William Hill etc

Each Way

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10 Year Trends For Three Big Races On Saturday

February 19, 2011 By sports betting blog Leave a Comment
Here are 10 year trends for three big races on Saturday.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 renewals. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment, SR for strike rate.
1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Chase – 3m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10.
Market: There were 3 winning second favourites, so 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the market.
Price: Horses priced 9/2  or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners.
LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out. Backing all 22 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £7.05 (ROI +32%).
LTO market position: 8 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO.
Career starts: Horses with 11 career starts or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. Horses who have raced 3 times or less over fences (previous to this race) have won 8 of the last 10.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 5/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 29 qualifiers for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -67.2%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse last time out have produced just 1 winner from 30 for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -86.7%).
GENERAL STATS
Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds

have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced
5 winners from 19 qualifiers (SR 26.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 0 winners
from 18 qualifiers (SR 0%).
Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some strong positive pointers. 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 9/2 or shorter so this is a definite starting point, with favourites given the closest scrutiny as they have won half of the races. LTO winners have an excellent record and look for horses that have had no more than 3 runs over fences as they have won 80% of the races from 55% of the total runners. In terms of age it looks best to focus on those horses aged 7 or younger.

2.45 Haydock – Totescoop6 (Rendlesham) Hurdle– 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites  from 10 qualifiers showing a

profit of £1.48 (ROI +14.8%).
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
Favourites LTO: There have only been 6 horses that started favourite LTO but 4 of them have gone on to win this race.
Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest LTO.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Haydock.
Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the races from just 20 runners although profits have been modest at £2.48 (ROI +12.2%).
Trainers: Francois Doumen has won the race 3 times since 2002.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Breeding: Just 2 wins from 23 for British bred runners showing losses of £12.00 (ROI -52.2%).
GENERAL STATS
Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 6 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 8 year olds have won 1 from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 9 year olds plus have won 3 from 21 qualifiers (SR 14.3%).
Trends analysis: this is a race where the positive trends tend to dominate. The market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. A decent run LTO has been a plus, as has racing in Grade 1 or 2 company LTO.  French breds have a good record as does trainer Francois Doumen. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

3.00 Ascot – Betfair Chase – 2m 5½f

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 for a profit of £1.54 (ROI +15.4%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter.
Last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton.
Trainers: the Pipe stable won the race four times between 2002 and 2006. No successes however, since David Pipe has taken over from his father.
LTO performance: 8 horses came into the race having failed to complete the course LTO, but 3 have gone onto win.
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 3 miles or more LTO have won 5 of the renewals from just 21 runners for a profit of £5.16 (ROI +24.6%).
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 23.
LTO Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger on their most recent run have provided 0 winners from 24.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year

olds have produced 6 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 35.3%); 9 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 10  year olds have produced
1 winner from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 11 year olds plus have produced 2 winners
from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%).
Trends analysis: this has been a market driven race in recent years thanks to 5 winning favourites and 9 winners priced 15/2 or shorter. A recent run is not necessarily a plus as 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. A LTO run at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton has been a positive, while in terms of age 8 year olds have performed way above expectations.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

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Racing Tip For Warwick

February 12, 2011 By sports betting blog Leave a Comment

Believe it or not this is just a snippet from a much more comprehensive members message from Guy over at Mathematician Betting.

To visit his site click here ==> Horse Betting Advice

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TODAY’S BEST BET

WARWICK 1.40

THE QUANTUM KID 10/1

Each Way

I have 4 additional bets for full members and all 4
could have beencontenders for my best bet today.
I have decided that a couple of these are short
enough prices in their races and the other pair
and in tough races so I have decided to go with
a bit of value today.

I like the Novice Handicap at Warwick and have
been playing some videos here. Complicated race
but I am convinced you want a Novice Hurdler in
ths sort of race that is lightly raced and ideally a
lighter weighted horse. I think ART BROKER is
my biggest danger around 6/1 and could have the
ability to go very close on his flat form. I’d drawn
more towards THE QUANTUM KID 10/1 here.

I liked him a lot on Video last time. He should be
thrown in off a mark of 98. His last run was in an
unusually warm Southwell Novice Hurdle when he
led jumping really well and only got caught 2 out.
That run was bound to have been needed after an
absence. The horses beating him are different class
and rated much higher than any of todays rivals.

Trainer Robin Dickin said last year that he wanted
to get the horse handicapped. He had a pelvis injury
so had time off last year but his last run tells me he’s
capable of winning off this mark. His trainer won the
race last year. He has a good record at his local track.
There is a little bit of market support as well which
doesn’t hurt. I feel there is optimism that he can go
very close in a bad race at a decent price. I will risk
him as my best bet today rather than the obvious.

WARWICK 1.40

Warwick Supports The Racing Lottery
Novices´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-110)  2m

7/2 Shalambar, 11/2 Art Broker, 13/2 Switched Off
13/2 Tara Warrior, 10/1 Kayfton Pete, 10/1 Peace Corps
12/1 Jomade, 12/1 Mega Watt, 12/1 Nosecond Chance
16/1 Hail Caesar, 16/1 Irish Symphony, The Quantum Kid
20/1 Superior Knight, 33/1 Cruise Control.

This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle. There are 36 similar races at this time of year.
SHALAMBAR is a 5 year old and I think the wrong type of 5 year old.
First of all 5 year olds that won last time out were 0-14 and those that placed last time are 0-29.
Horses aged 5 from Handicaps had a weak 1-48 record.
The 5 year olds you want are lightly raced types unplaced in a Novice
Hurdle last time and SHALAMBAR is not that type so I want to oppose him.
HAIL CAESAR is also the wrong type of 5 year old.
I think CRUISE CONTROL has too much to do.
I feel SUPERIOR KNIGHT has stamina doubts.
Horses coming from Novice Hurdles are fine assuming certain conditions.
The Novice Hurdlers all had fewer runs than TARA WARRIOR
so he looks vulnerable and none won with his absence and that’s enough
to take him out. IRISH SYMPHONY is a mare and I don’t think in good enough form.
MEGA WATT comes out badly. I cut him some slack down in trip but his profile is
not safe enough. I dont like JOMADE hammered at 100/1 in his
Novice Hurdle last time. KAYFTON PETE is a little exposed
for a 5 year old to come from a Novice Hurdle especially with no
Graded form and such a high weight. A shortlist of 4 horses.

PEACE CORPS – Impossible to read. First run for new stable

SWITCHED OFF – Shortlistable but not quite right

NOSECOND CHANCE – Acceptable Profile but big weight

ART BROKER – There are similar winners

THE QUANTUM KID – The right type of profile

I have listed these in order of profile. PEACE CORPS is
the most riSky. SWITCHED OFF has a slightly better one.
NOSECONDCHANCE can’t be ruled out. Best profile for
me is ART BROKER and THE QUANTUM KID both of
these lightly raced Novice Hurdlers.  Impossible to know
how much of their ability has been hidden or how much
they will be showing today. Both Trainers have angles I
like here. I think ART BROKER is the biggest danger.

SELECTION

THE QUANTUM KID EACH WAY 10/1

Blog Comment:
10/1 was available earlier when this was provided to Mathematician members.

Best Bookmaker Price now 8/1 at numerous places eg Ladbrokes Hills Bet365

See http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-02-12/warwick/13-40/betting/

PS This free blog just gets small snippets.

The above is only a small part of todays full message.

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National Hunt Horse Racing Statistics

February 12, 2011 By admin Leave a Comment

National Hunt Horse Racing Statistics

As Michael Caine would say ..”not a lot of people know that”

Knowing more than most is a great position to be in when making betting decissions.

The info below is a snippet from todays message from Dave Renham’s RacingTrends Service.

It is a mere snippet.

His full message coantains much much more about favourite stats, trainer stats and draw bias etc.

RacignTrends is well worth a look if you are thinking punter who likes to do your own thing instead of blindly following tips. You will find Dave’s research a  great aid giving you racing insights most others do not have access to.

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POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

4.30    Ayr – King Sandor **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

1.20    Newbury – Oasis Knight: N Henderson – hurdle races; off track for 6 months or more; class 2 or lower; SR 34% ROI +46% (win & pl 54%)

2.25    Newbury – Riverside Theatre **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

3.35    Newbury – Tiger O’toole **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

2.40    Warwick – Kilmurry **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

3.45    Warwick – Alfie Sherrin **: J O’Neill – novice/beginner chases must be priced 8/1 or shorter; NOT Grade 1 tracks SR 31% ROI +19% (win & pl 52%)

4.55    Warwick – Dark Shadow: N Henderson – 4yos on debut SR 36% ROI +36% (win & pl 57%)

4.55    Warwick – Theatre Guide **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

NEGATIVE STATS -

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

5.05    Ayr – Glengap: Poor Sire Stats – Needle Gun in hurdles races; SR 4% ROI -74% (win & pl 21%)

4.05    Newbury – Jokers Legacy **: Poor Trainer Stat – T Vaughan – horses wearing headgear; must be 3rd or bigger in the betting; SR 5% ROI -64% (win & pl 20%)

4.40    Newbury – Star Neuville **: Poor jockey stat – A Mc Coy in bumpers; horses MUST BE priced 5/1 or bigger SR 4% ROI -70% (win & pl 19%)

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