TOWCESTER 3.05

5/4 Ayemdee, 13/8 Cartier Opera, 13/2 Kinkeel,
10/1 Champagne Star, 14/1 My Matilda.

This is another small field Handicap Chase over 2m 6f and
there has been 632 of these races in November -December.
I looked at Mares like MY MATILDA that ran within the
past 2 weeks. There were 7 winners but none ran as badly
as she did last time and none came up from 2m 4f or less so
I see her as having a poor profile. CHAMPAGNE STAR is
also a mare and didnt do enough for me last time and is very
inexperienced over fences. KINKEEL has a very shaky look to his profile.
All three runs this season look awful and with a recent run surely
he hasn’t enough time to bounce back to form. AYEMDEE and
CARTIER OPERA look best and both have ran well in a recent
handicap chase. I looked at all the similar types that have done that.
Both have profiles that won similar races and I like both these horses.
Its arguable AYEMDEE has the better profile. He is younger by 3 years
and less exposed and he doesnt have to step up in distance as CARTIER
OPERA has to do. You could argue his jumping may be safer but I think
CARTIER OPERA is a better bet.

AYEMDEE has only had 1 chase run. I tipped him in that
last time when he won and it was a dreadful race and I just
assumed last time that as it was such a bad race he couldnt
help winning if he could jump. On reflection though I am
more drawn to CARTIER OPERA. This is a huge horse
and took a long time to get on a racecourse. Whatever his
problems the only conclusion you could have is that he was
a well handicapped horse when he won here in November in
a Novice Handicap. That looks a better race than the only
chase run AYEMDEE ran and won in. CARTIER OPERA
won that day off 74. Today he is now only still rated 82.
The question I ask myself is what would he have been rated
had he won a couple more races just as he should have done.

Three runs ago he was going well when unseating rider at
Hereford. He would have bolted in two runs ago at Taunton
but for falling at the last. He should really be on a mark in the 90’s by now.
He jumped round Towcester and placed last time in a Handicap Chase.
If this horse can jump round he is a very well treated horse.
Going up in trip has to help today as it will slow the pace down.
We know he loves thecourse. Yes there are jumping worries but the
small field and longer trip has to help and he has far more chasing
experience than AYEMDEE has had. Dont forget that although
AYEMDEE won on his only Chase start he made mistakes that
day too and wasnt foot perfect. CARTIER OPERA has at least
had much more experience. Given a couple of fewer mistakes in
recent races that he had at his mercy tells me that he would  have
gone up a lot more in the handicaps and would not only  have been
Topweight today – Theres every chance he wouldnt be eligable to be
running in a 0-95 and could have been rated higher than this ceiling.
The horse has proven raw ability on
the Flat. I think given the small field and given he is 2/1 in a race
where few can win CARTIER OPERA is an excellent bet

SELECTION – CARTIER OPERA
2/1 PaddyPower S James Ladbrokes

Provided by Guy Ward

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