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Jadwiz Racing Promotional Code

April 29, 2010 By shareapost Leave a Comment

Jadwiz Racing Promotional Code

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Sandown Horse Racing Advice

April 24, 2010 By shareapost Leave a Comment

Some thoughts on Sandown today from Guy over at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

——————————————————————-

I have a full Account Bet today in the 4pm race at Ripon
for full members.

Here in the free blog today I thought I would put up a few quick thoughts
on Sandown however.

S A N D O W N

Want to deal with Sandown first as its not a great card
from my point of view mixing hurdles and flat races with
many big fields and trial races. Only want to skip over it.

The opening Handicap at 1pm has 7 renewals. This race
is for Jump and Flat Jockeys and it’s the only race of its
kind at this time of year so angles are thin on the ground.
The worst age group so far has been 4 year olds and I’d
predict an older runner will win. I am happy to oppose a
4yo from a 3yo handicap like Directorship -Kiss A Prince
and Aurora Sky and one from a maiden like Night Lily. I’d
oppose4 year olds like Sapphire Prince and Mr Udagawa
and Best In Class who were all well beaten last time. I am
against any 4yo like Black N Brew with an absence. The
other 4yo Striding Edge is also opposed. Carlitos Spirit
was beaten too far recently. I’d avoid Halsion Chancer
coming from a 6f race. I would shortlist 2 here. Normally
TWILIGHT STAR would have been chucked out with a
profile like his but he won this last year so he gets some
dispensation. MILLFIELDS DREAMS would be my best
hope in the race.

I thought the Listed race Hurdle at 1.30 was priced up
about right. All past winners were aged 5-6-7 with them
all having at least 4 runs that season and previous form
in either Grade 1 or Grade 2 class. Only two horses have
that profile in ASHKAZAR and PETIT ROBIN. There is
no point doing the next race as it’s ridiculous.

The Celebration Chase at 2.30 throws up a big problem
in what to do with TWIST MAGIC the favourite. He is
easily the best horse in the race and won the race last
year as well but just 4 days ago he refused to race and
that is a problem. That was in Ireland as well so he has
travelled there and back in a few days as well. I would
not want FIX THE RIB from a hurdle. Statistically there
is a poor record with horses from handicaps when they
drop in trip so I´M SO LUCKY and CHANINBAR lack
the profile of all past winners. OISEAU DE NUIT may
be the best option at the prices. His chance like all the
others may depend on whether TWIST MAGIC starts
or runs his race. TWIST MAGIC is the most likely one
but at the prices I like OISEAU DE NUIT each way.

SANDOWN 3.05

Bet365 Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m5f110y

7/1 Fairoak Lad, 7/1 Just Amazing, 8/1 The Package,
10/1 Kilcrea Castle, 12/1 Lacdoudal, 12/1 Nostringsattached
14/1 Air Force One, 14/1 Hello Bud, 14/1 Hoo La Baloo
14/1 Tamarinbleu, 16/1 Lothian Falcon, 20/1 Church Island
20/1 Monkerhostin, 25/1 Alderburn, 25/1 Irish Raptor
28/1 My Will, 33/1 Killyglen, 33/1 Martys Mission 33/1 Nozic, 33/1 Piraya.

The 3.05pm Bet365 Gold Cup is a Grade 3 Handicap over
3m 5f. Tough sort of race. The horses that I think will not
be Fit enough are MONKERHOSTIN – AIR FORCE ONE
NOZIC – LOTHIAN FALCON – IRISH RAPTOR. There’s
a poor record horses of horses aged 10 or more (1-71) so
ALDERBURN -LACDOUDAL – CHURCH ISLAND look
weak as 11 year olds. HELLO BUD is 12 and ran far too
well in the Grand National and surely wont recover. Its
asking too much for an exposed horse to defy a lengthy
absence so HOO LA BALOO is out. MARTYS MISSION
is up too far in trip. I’m uncomfortable JUST AMAZING
comes from a Novice Chase and also lacks any form in a
Graded race something 15 of the last 17 winners had. For
the same reason NOSTRINGSATTACHED is opposed.
TAMARINBLEU comes out badly with his absence. Its
asking too much of PIRAYA. The only 7 year olds that
won this were in form and placed last time and he didnt
and thats why he is opposed and THE PACKAGE has
similar problems and I don’t fancy him. KILLYGLEN did
not run well enough last week. MY WILL doesnt make
any appeal. I would shortlist two. KILCREA CASTLE
and FAIROAK LAD both unexposed look strongest.

SELECTION – FAIROAK LAD
SAVER – KILCREA CASTLE

The bet 365 Mile at 3.40pm is a high class Group 2 race.
Its a messy race statistically as 5 runners have had their
latest runs Abroad and no horse comes from the strong
trial race (Earl of Sefton) this year. PRINCE OF DANCE
and THE CHEKA look too inexperienced. No horse has
come from handicaps like FAREER. The last 22 winners
were all younger than PRESSING. One of the interesting
angles in this race is that horses aged 5 or more that are
running first time out are 0-44 in this race. It was only 4
year olds that won this on their seasonal debuts. If you
look at all seasonal debutants none won with 13 or more
starts so BEACON LODGE and PACO BOY the shortest
priced horse have that to overcome. For me the strongest
3 are BORDER PATROL – CONFRONT – CAT JUNIOR. I
would look to one of these. The best bet given the going
may well be CONFRONT each way.

SANDOWN 4.15

Bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m2f7y

11/4 Crowded House, 7/2 Glass Harmonium, 4/1 Tranquil Tiger,
9/2 Laaheb, 13/2 Steele Tango, 12/1 Soul City, 16/1 Redwood.

The Gordon Richards Stakes (4.15pm) is unpleasant as
just 7 runners take place. None of the past winners of
this race were as inexperienced as REDWOOD and not
one was as exposed as TRANQUIL TIGER. All the 4yo
seasonal debutant winners had Group class form in the
past and LAAHEB does not. Horses that had a recent
run and 13 or more career starts were 0-23 and that mix
is something STEELE TANGO has to overcome. I dont
like SOUL CITY much and doubt his stamina as well at
10f. Given a choice CROWDED HOUSE has to make it
to the shortlist as does GLASS HARMONIUM. Tough
to split them but CROWDED HOUSE appeals more.

The 4.50 is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile. Statistically
its a race that’s been messed about with over the years.
MUJOOD is out from a 6f race. SWIFT CHAP had some
problems up in trip. I don’t fancy DUNN’O. I dislike him
as he has 1 run this year and comes up in distance. The
52 similar races show 3 winners managing that but none
were exposed like him none were aged 5 or more as he is
and although DUNN’O won this last year it was with less
weight he wasnt exposed or up in distance. I am not too
keen on GENERAL ELIOTT from novice hurdles. I tried
to find winners like TARTAN GIGHA down from 10f in
the last few weeks but I couldnt match a strong enough
profile and MOUNT HADLEY also has that problem. It
bothers me CHAPTER AND VERSE has been sold and
downgraded stables late last season. That only leaves
MABAIT and although I think he’s plenty short enough
I can understand why he is a warm favourite.

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Horse Racing Statistics For Saturday

April 24, 2010 By shareapost Leave a Comment

Dave Renham has just launched a new free blog over at RacingTrends

To visit it click here ===> Horse Racing Blog

Dave is a respected horse racing researcher and will be posting some of his findings for each Saturday’s racing.

See below what he has for today.

================================

Sat 24 Apr 2010

Best races for favourites

1.00, 1.30, 2.30, 4.50 Sandown

4.00 Ripon

4.40 Leicester

7.50 Wolverhampton

8.05 Haydock

Trainer stat to note

R Hannon – 2yo Auction races over 5f; March to June; must be favourite SR 57.5%; ROI +37.5%

Hannon has a potential qualifier in Bunce (2.35 Leicester) – is currently favourite at 4.4 on Betfair.

Best race for front runners

2.15 Ripon

Strong course trainer stats

Leicester

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
J D Bethell 9 30 30.0 +£47.50 +158.3 1.55
H R A Cecil 14 61 23.0 +£7.11 +11.7 4.40
M Johnston 29 137 21.2 +£48.54 +35.4 3.00, 3.00, 4.05

Ripon

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
Mrs R Carr 4 18 22.2 +£15.50 +86.1 2.50
M H Tompkins 5 23 21.7 +£11.50 +50.0 3.25
W J Haggas 8 40 20.0 +£12.32 +30.8 2.15, 5.10
K A Ryan 29 155 18.7 +£50.75 +32.7 2.15, 4.35

Market Rasen

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
Jim Best 3 4 75.0 +£8.50 +212.5 1.10
D McCain Jnr 9 33 27.3 +£18.25 +55.3 4.20
N J Hawke 5 25 20.0 +£17.50 +70.0 3.50
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Scottish Grand National Tip

April 17, 2010 By shareapost Leave a Comment

Scottish Grand National Tip

AYR 3.20

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

8/1 Poker De Sivola, 9/1 Meanus Dandy, Theatrical Moment
12/1 Gone To Lunch, 14/1 Faasel, 14/1 Scots Dragoon, Merigo
16/1 Mobaasher, 16/1 That´s Rhythm, 20/1 Dom D´orgeval
20/1 Killyglen, 20/1 Lothian Falcon, 25/1 Auroras Encore
25/1 Halcon Genelardais, 25/1 Himalayan Trail, 25/1 Montero
25/1 Razor Royale, 33/1 Chiaro, Gidam Gidam 33/1 Out The Black
33/1 Superior Wisdom, According To John, 50/1 Cleni Boy 50/1 Idle Talk,
50/1 Ma Yahab, No Panic, 50/1 Present M´lord 50/1 Western Gale,
66/1 Lorum Leader, 100/1 Craiglands.
* The Scottish Grand National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992

In Nationals I am very suspicious about horses that look
underraced this year. No horse has won this race having
had under 3 runs this year so CHIARO – WESTERN GALE
LOTHIAN FALCON and HALCON GENELARDAIS have
weak profiles. Others that look underraced this year are
OUT THE BLACK, FAASEL, MERIGO, GIDAM GIDAM
CLENI BOY and IDLE TALK. I’d oppose these few horses.

Preperation is everything in Nationals and its interesting
that horses who Fell last time out or who Pulled Up had a
0-112 record in this race. You want a horse coming  here
confident and in form I’d be wary of horses not finishing
or falling in their last race. ACCORDING TO JOHN fails
that as does RAZOR ROYALE – LORUM LEADER and
THAT´S RHYTHM. I would be inclined to ignore these.

You want  some Experience over fences.Go back to 1998
and look at all the winners and the seconds and thirds in
this race. There are 33 win and place positions there and
the 33 horses all had the following number of chase starts.

13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21
10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17

You can see that no horse won or placed in this race
with fewer than 5 Chase starts. I would want at least
5 chase runs. SUPERIOR WISDOM doesnt have the
experience. I am also against MEANUS DANDY with
just 4 Chase starts. He is also a 7yo and only 1 winner
was that age and he had Graded form. MONTERO is
also rejected with just 4 Chase starts.

There’s been 2 recent winners that lacked Graded form
so it can be done but Neither of these were exposed so
I would be wary of horses that have ran enough times
to be classed as exposed but who haven’t got any past
form in Graded races before. I suspect these horses will
lack the class. PRESENT M´LORD  – SCOTS DRAGOON
FINE BY ME – MA YAHAB are all lacking this factor.

Horses from ordinary Novice Chases have yet to win it
and all 19 that tried failed. MOBAASHER fails that and
is not for me. Tehnically POKER DE SIVOLA also fails
that when winning the 4m Cheltenham Amateur Riders
race at the Festival. You can probably forgive him that
as a Festival winner but he is only a 7 year old and they
have the worst records and it’s asking a lot for a  horse
to win at Cheltenham and win this as well. If you look
at the horses that came from the Cheltenham Festival
they had a 2-68 record. None were exposed horses as
POKER DE SIVOLA is. None were 7 year olds. Both
who did it had Grade 1 form and he doesnt and what’s
possibly more interesting is that no horse that finished
1-2-3-4 at the Cheltenham festival won this race. Thats
enough to put me off POKER DE SIVOLA. Staying with
Cheltenham Festival horses THEATRICAL MOMENT
also comes from Cheltenham. We know no 7 year olds
done that and no horse has done it without a previous
run in a Grade 1 race and he lacks that. Considering all
7 year olds struggled in this race (1-44) and that winner
had more backclass THEATRICAL MOMENT doesn’t
really interest me. NO PANIC is also a 7yo and rejected.

I dont like horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter. Only 1
past winner did that and he had a run within a week. It
is why I oppose AURORAS ENCORE who also comes
from hurdles something no past winner had done. I do
not think CRAIGLANDS has the backclass to overcome
a nasty absence. HIMALAYAN TRAIL is an exposed
11 year old and these horses dont score well.

SHORTLIST

GONE TO LUNCH
KILLYGLEN
DOM D´ORGEVAL

GONE TO LUNCH is shortlistable but to have been a
really strong runner he needed to have finished better
last time and a heavy defeat knocks him back a bit. I’d
shortlist DOM D´ORGEVAL as his run last week just
gets him through the shortlist. KILLYGLEN looks one
of the better runners if he can cope with the weight

SELECTION -
DOM D´ORGEVAL 20/1  

Each Way

Bet365 who pay 5 places

Guy Ward

To Visit Guys site click here ==> horse racing tips

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Grand National Tip

April 10, 2010 By shareapost Leave a Comment

Grand National Tip

If seeking a home for your fun fiver here is a bit of Grand national Analysis for you.

This comes from Guy Ward. To visit his site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

===========================================

If you like a Grand National horse don’t let me or my angles talk you out of it.
I don’t feel this is an easy race this year and I’m hopeful rather than confident.
You get just the one chance a year to bet the winner so don’t let me cost you the winner.

My Grand National selection (s) are these

HELLO BUD 50/1
NICHE MARKET 22/1

AINTREE 4.15

John Smith´s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+)  4m4f

Forecast Odds

9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 12/1 Mon Mome, 12/1 The Package
16/1 Arbor Supreme, 16/1 Black Apalachi, 16/1 Character Building 16/1 Niche Market,
16/1 Snowy Morning, 16/1 State Of Play 16/1 Tricky Trickster, 20/1 Backstage,
20/1 Comply Or Die 20/1 Don´t Push It, 25/1 Vic Venturi, 28/1 Irish Raptor 28/1
King Johns Castle, 33/1 Ballyholland, 33/1 Can´t Buy Time 33/1 Maljimar, 33/1 My Will,
40/1 Cloudy Lane, Dream Alliance 40/1 Eric´s Charm, 40/1 Hello Bud, 50/1 Ballyfitz, 50/1
Cerium 50/1 Madison Du Berlais, 66/1 Flintoff, Nozic, Palypso De Creek 66/1 Royal Rosa,
100/1 Beat The Boys, 100/1 Conna Castle 100/1 Ellerslie George, 100/1 Joe Lively,
100/1 Ollie Magern 100/1 Piraya, 100/1 Preists Leap, 150/1 Made In Taipan 150/1 Pablo Du Charmil.

The Grand National is never easy but never as hard as
is often portrayed and not everything can win the race
as the old cliche goes. The ground could play a bigger
part this year as its drying out.
I think this years race has an unusual frame to it with no horses carrying less than 10st 5lbs
and 19 runners having 11st or more.
The stats that suggest horses don’t win with over 11st has never been more vulnerable as it is this year.

Not planning to have a huge preview of the race but very keen to get it right this year and I’m turning a blind eye to some stats.

My favourite Grand National statistic that applies to all
similar races in the first half of the year is as follows.

* Since 1992 there has been 65 Handicaps
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases with at least 12 runners
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* This includes the last 16 Grand Nationals
* It includes the Scottish , Irish and Midlands Nationals
* Exposed horses struggle with under 5 runs that season
* They have a 2-337 record in these races
* They were 0-144 in this race
* In all races at 4m and more they were just 1-293

I would strongly avoid all horses that are exposed and
lightly raced this season with under 5 runs. This is why
I would make the following horses negatives.

Madison Du Berlais – Black Apalachi – Don’t Push It
Comply Or Die – Dream Alliance – Character Building
Pablo Du Charmil – State of Play – Cloudy Lane – My Will
Eric’s Charm – King Johns Castle -  Maljimar – Irish Raptor -Flintoff- Cerium – Royal Rosa. NOZIC is also short of runs.

It is a well known fact that the last 7 year old winner of
this race was back in 1940 and I couldnt have any horse
that age. In addition to those already opposed above I
would add TRICKY TRICKSTER who is actually only 6
years and 10 months old foaled in June 2003. Others aged
7 to be rejected are THE PACKAGE who has fewer races
over fences than all recent winners. PALYPSO DE CREEK
and PIRAYA are both out as 7 year olds.

* Since 1992 there has been 65 Handicaps
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more

If you look my sample size of 65 races discussed earlier that covers every similar race to this as well
as this one they also show that you have to have been at least 1st  2nd or 3rd in a recent race.
In fact All 65 winners had managed to be placed 1-2-3 in their last six runs.
This should rule out all the out of form horses in the doldrums showing no recent promise.
It’s a trend  PREISTS LEAP fails. BIG FELLA THANKS deserves  massive credit for
finishing 6th last year as a 7 year old. This year he is 8 although not quite 8 for a
few more weeks yet as he was foaled late. I don’t like that about him. I hate the fact
he has just 3 runs this year and did not finish in one of those races.
I think coming from 2m 4f also hurts a horse as young as him and he has far too many
holes in his profile at a short enough price. CAN´T BUY TIME has a similar problem
age 8 and having to step up from 2m 4f with just 3 runs this season.
I can not find any similar horse winning in the 65 races.
The record of certain horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter is awful. MADE IN TAIPAN makes no appeal doing this. Neither does
BALLYHOLLAND coming from a 17f Chase and opposed for
that reason and because he has not won over 3 Miles before
something every winner since 1988 had done. BACKSTAGE
is also 8 years old and up from a 2m 4f race and I couldn’t get a similar winner to
him and he looks on the inexperienced side as well. CONNA CASTLE is out
exposed and up significantly in distance. Exposed horses that come from chases
over 2m 6f or shorter had a 0-66 record in the 69 races.
Thats one of the reasons why I am not convinced about  SNOWY MORNING.
OLLIE MAGERN looks wrong and impossible to fancy.
I feel JOE LIVELY has far too much weight for an exposed 11yo.
It’s  unheard of for an exposed horse like ELLERSLIE GEORGE  to  win without
Graded form. BEAT THE BOYS fails many angles. BALLYFITZ doesnt have a bad profile
although he doesn’t  jump well enough and I would not be confident he would get  round.
I hate the fact he has only won Novice Chases and he also comes from a hurdle race.

POSSIBLES

VIC VENTURA has to be considered. I think he has quite a
stiff handicap mark courtesy of being so consistent. I think  his rating and handicap mark hurt him.
Statistically having won 3 races this season he wouldn’t be like many winners  and coming from a
small field graded chase doesnt impress  me. My gut feeling is that although interesting in terms of
class and his 5-6 runs this season the price he is paying for 3 wins this season may be too high
and his weight may just  be the undoing of him.

ARBOUR SUPREME has factors I don’t like. If you look at
the 65 similar races that include the last 16 renewals of this race. Horses with 13 + career starts
absent over a month like ARBOUR SUPREME won 18 of the 65 races.
Those under 10 years old were 6-174. ARBOUR SUPREME is only aged
8 and that 6-174 record applies to all horses under 10.
Those without form in Grade 1 races like him were just 1-89.
None of them came from short of 3 Miles as he does.
He’s not the best age. Having 4 runs this year is no advantage.
Neither is stepping up from 2m 6f.
Combine all those factors and as a horse with no Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
I think a combination of all of them might prove too much for him.

MON MOME won this by 12 lengths last year carrying 11st.
He has 11st 7lbs this year. His weight was always going to
be his big problem. That said he’d have won the race last year with 7lbs
more weight and many past winners were clobbered more than he has been.
In a year I personally wouldnt listen to negative weight statistics much I’d give
him a better chance than many and I would have him as 3rd-4th-5th pick in the race.

SHORTLIST

NICHE MARKET -  HELLO BUD

I don’t much like exposed 12 year olds like HELLO BUD but
what few winners there were like her had similar credentials to him and I can ot rule him out at 50/1.
NICHE MARKET  has a good profile. He prepped really well at Cheltenham when he was wrong statistically.
I would have liked more wins and some form left handed but he has a fair chance.

SELECTION

NICHE MARKET 25/1
HELLO BUD 50/1

Blog comment : prices dropped a touch from the above which was given to full members earlier

Hello Bud now 40/1 Coral VC Ladbrokes CanBet or 48/1 Betfair

Niche Market now 20/1 sjames VC Bet365  or 23/1 Betfair

Filed Under: Sports Betting Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Scottish Football Betting

April 10, 2010 By shareapost Leave a Comment

This bet comes from Tammboy an ex bookmaker odds compiler and trader.
To get more from him click here ==>  Scottish Football Betting Tips

Scottish Division3 – Queen’s Park WIN@13/8 (vs. Stranraer) – 2 Star bet (Bet365)

Stranraer vs. Queen’s Park

Queen’s park have hit form at the right time and bar Livingston are the team to beat at the moment – they might even nick 3rd if they keep playing like they have been. They’re a solid outfit and should arguably have been challenging for the title. Stranraer are an in and out middle of the table side and although these ties don’t always go the way you want, this is not a pick’em affair – Queen’s should be far shorter than the 13/8 with Bet365. Back them at that price before it goes.


Filed Under: Sports Betting Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Racing Tip For Carlisle

April 3, 2010 By shareapost Leave a Comment

Free tip form Guy over at mathematician betting is below

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Tips

================================

Today is probably the quietest Saturday we will get
for a few months. No Flat cards at all. Kempton is an
awful card on the sand. That just leaves an all chase
card at Carlisle and Haydock where neither card has
a maiden or Novice Hurdle. It’s a very drab saturday.

Our season proper will start on Bank Holiday Monday.
Next week will be a significant week. The Flat starts to
take off and get busy and the Grand National meeting
at Aintree dominates so I can start to give more bets
and have much more choice and variety something I
just have not had this week or today which is awful.

Done what I can looking at a few races today but we
have not been offered anything interesting and Not
close to having a Bet today. There are a few horses
with good solid profiles today but not exceptionally
good ones. Reluctant to go with any horse today at
the top of the message. I’m not going to let the worst
Saturday Cards in months seduce me into a serious bet but
now the Flat is back we will get a lot busier from now on.

If stuck for inspiration today however consider the following

CARLISLE 4.00

More Live Football Betting At Totesport.com
Novices´ Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+)  2m4f

13/8 Mr Woods, 3/1 Finney, 7/2 Youngstown
7/1 Ginolad, 15/2 Heez A Steel.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Chase. There has been 453 similar
races at this time of year. I dont have a big problem with
FINNEY’s absence or the fact he is so lightly raced this
season but any horses that won with his profile had not
come from a Handicap. I couldnt find one from a Novice
Handicap and I wasn’t that impressed with his profile.

* YOUNGSTOWN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not coming down 12f in 17 days
* HEEZ A STEEL has a poor profile
* Exposed horses from hurdles struggled
* None dropped in trip and I thought he was unsafe
* GINOLAD has a difficult profile to read
* He is 10 and most of his career was in Australia
* He won the 2008 Australian Grand National
* Good start to his English career but he has regressed
* I couldnt rule him out but I couldnt find a similar winner
* I thought MR WOODS had the strongest profile

MR WOODS

* Males winning 2m 4f Novice Chase last time
* 13 or more career starts
* 5-6 runs this season
* Running within a month
* There were 20 horses with that profile and 10 won
* The 10 losers finished 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 F
* MR WOODS has a strong profile

5/2 at many including  PaddyPower S James BoyleSports Bet365

Filed Under: Sports Betting Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Odds Software

April 3, 2010 By shareapost Leave a Comment

I have just set up a new site aimed at focussing on betting software.

It is an embryonic website right now but if you register there it will point you to a very useful,  powerful ( and cheap )  piece of soccer sofware you can use to calculate true odds for soccer betting.

Here is the link ==> Odds Software

The absolute core principle of any long term betting strategy is of course that you back or lay ONLY when the odds are in yoru favor.

To do that you need to somehow calculate what True Odds are and then compare them to bookmaker or betting Exchange prices.

If you have an edge of acceptable value then you bet.. if not you walk away.

Odds software is a huge aid in making such True Odds calculations.

Filed Under: Sports Betting Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Saturday Soccer Betting

March 27, 2010 By shareapost Leave a Comment

Saturday Soccer Betting

A few football bets for you today from Phil over at the Football Bets site

Phil used to work in a bookmakers and in fact turned down work as an football odds compiler to focus on his own betting.

He is one of several expert soccer advisors over at the football bets website.

I can’t promise success today with these bets but following his advice is a shrewd move long term as he has a very good record for strike rate and profitability.

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Morning Guys 2 singles and a mixed treble for today
Which all look decent value.

Birmingham v Arsenal
OVER 35 booking points at evens extrabet 1pt

Celtic to win with a clean sheet v Kilmarnock at 10/11 BoyleSports 1pt

Mixed Treble
Arsenal to get most corners v Birmingham
Chelsea to get most corners v Aston Villa
Shrewsbury to beat Darlington

This bet pays 21/20 at williamhill have 1pt on it

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Filed Under: Sports Betting Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics

March 27, 2010 By shareapost Leave a Comment

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham

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Dave offers a useful free guide to horse racing.

To get yours click here ==> Horse Racing Course

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In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have provided 6 winners and backing
all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £12.50 (ROI +25%).
Course LTO:

9 of the 15 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. They have provided
60% of the winners from only 33% of the total runners. Backing all such
runners would have produced a profit of £44.50 (ROI +40.5%).
Age:
4yos have won 10 of the last 15 renewals. (67% of winners from 44% of
the total runners).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
1 win from 15 for a loss of £7.00 (ROI -46.7%).
Price:
All runners priced 11/2 or shorter have been beaten (12 in total).
Price:
Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 122 qualifiers
for a loss of £88.00 (ROI -72.1%).
Distance LTO:
Horses that ran over 1m1f or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 78
qualifiers.
Class LTO:
67 horses raced in the same class or higher LTO and all have lost.
Course LTO:
Horses that ran on the all weather LTO have provided just 3 winners
from 155 runners for a loss of £108.00 (ROI -69.7%).
Age:
Horses 7yos and older have provided 0 winners from 55.

GENERAL STATS

Position LTO:
Horses that finished 10th or worse LTO have won 7 of the
races.
Sex of horse:
Female runners have a fair record with 3 wins from 31 for a profit of
£22.00 (ROI +71%).

Trends analysis:
In general I would look to use the negative trends first to help narrow
this big field down. Firstly ignore 7 year olds and older, then ignore
and horses dropping in trip. All 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO
and there should be preference for horses that ran at a Grade 1 track
LTO. Also LTO form does not really seem to matter as nearly half the
winners have won after finishing 10th
or worse LTO.

2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price:
7 of the last 15 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 11/1. Backing
all runners in this price bracket would have produced a profit of £14.50
(ROI +26.9%).
LTO class:
Horses that raced in Listed class LTO have provided 8 of the last 15
winners.
Days since last
run: 14 of the last 15 winners were having their first run of the
year in the UK.
Running style:
In recent years horses that have raced up with or close to the pace
have had a clear advantage providing 8 of the last 11 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

LTO class:
Horses that raced in class 3 company or lower LTO have provided 0 winners
from 25 runners.
LTO race type:
Horses that raced in an all age handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 65 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -76.9%).
LTO course:

Horses that raced on the all weather LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 33 for a loss of £24.50 (ROI -74.2%).
Headgear:
Horses wearing blinkers / visors have provided 0 winners from 24.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc.
joints): 4 wins from 17 for a loss of £2.75 (ROI -16.2%).
Age:
3yos have won 1 race from 9 (SR 11.1%); 4yos have won 4 races from 59
(SR 6.8%); 5yos have won 4 races from 31 (SR 12.9%); 6yos have won 3
races from 28 (SR 10.7%); 7yos have won 2 races from 23 (SR 8.7%); 8yos+
have won 1 from 26 (SR 3.8%).
Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 13 races from 143 (SR 9.1%); female runners have
won 2 races from 33 (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis:
This is a race that traditionally favours seasonal debutants rather
than horses that have raced recently on the all weather. The best value
has been in the 6/1 to 11/1 price bracket. Prominent racers have a good
recent record, while horses that raced in Listed class LTO have been
the most successful. Avoid horses that raced in an all age handicap
LTO and/or and any horse wearing blinkers or a visor. Also horses that
raced in class 3 or lower LTO look best ignored.

3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the betting. (15.4
runners per race is the 15-year average).
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners have been priced 14/1 or lower.
Draw:
In big fields high draws have had the advantage in recent years with
four of the seven 17 runner plus races since 1998 going to one of the
top three stalls. Indeed, 2 years ago the first five runners home were
drawn 19, 14, 13, 18 and 20 (19 ran; 2 non runners). Last year the first
six horses home in a 19 runners race were drawn 11 or higher.
Running style:
The last 15 winners have raced close to or up with the pace.
Trainers:
Bill Turner has saddled 4 winners and 4 placed horses from 15.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc.
joints): 2 wins from 20 for a loss of £10.25 (ROI -51.3%).
Market position:
Horses 10th or bigger in the betting market have provided
1 win from 89 runners for a loss of £63.00 (ROI -70.8%).
Price:
Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 110 runners
for a loss of £84.00 (ROI -76.4%).
Training centre:
Newmarket trainers have provided just 1 winners from 23 for a loss of
£19.75 (ROI -85.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 12 races from 170 (SR 4.9%); female runners have
won 3 races from 61 (SR 4.9%).
Foaling date:
January and February foals have won 5 races from 79 (SR 6.3%); March
foals have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); April and May foals have won
4 from 82 (SR 4.9%).

Trends analysis:
With this being such an early 2yo race one would expect trends to be
thin on the ground, but there are several useful pointers to this contest.
Traditionally it is best to focus on horses priced 14/1 or shorter,
although it should be noted that favourites have struggled. Racing close
to the pace has been vital and this has become more important as the
fields have increased, so ‘in running’ players take note! A trainer
to note is Bill Turner whose record is very impressive. Finally, in
big fields a high draw has been an advantage.
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