3.40 Newbury
Money-Back Special
If your horse finishes second beaten by up to and including a neck in this race, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions
Money-Back Special – Our Necks On The Line!
May 15, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Football Matches – Franks For Everything
May 15, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Chelsea v Portsmouth – Sat 3pm ITV1
If Frank Lampard scores the last goal in 90 minutes, Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match. Conditions
Lockinge Stakes Betting Advice
May 15, 2010 By Leave a Comment
NEWBURY 3.05
Totesport.com Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m
5/6 Paco Boy, 100/30 Zacinto, 14/1 Lord Shanakill
14/1 Ouqba, 14/1 Pipedreamer, 14/1 The Cheka
25/1 Stimulation, 40/1 Prince Of Dance, 66/1 Kargali.
It is Lockinge day at Newbury. Purely on profiles I am
going to oppose the odds on favourite with ZACINTO
in this race. Not sure how realistic that is and he would
not appeal as an account bet with a long absence but it
is interesting that since this race was awarded Group 1
status 15 years ago None of the winners were similar to
the odds on Paco Boy yet an incredible 8 of the 15 that
won were very similar to ZACINTO so he’s a decent bet
The Lockinge Stakes has an odds on favourite this year in
last years 4th PACO BOY. Like many I was impressed with
his win in the Sandown Mile. In 2009 PACO BOY won the
Sandown Mile and I opposed him in this race last year as
statistically there was a question mark. Horses that have
run this season have won 3 of the 15 Lockinge’s and they
all ran in the Sandown Mile as PACO BOY has done. The
fact remains that horses winning at Sandown and coming
to this race have a 0-26 record. That has to be a concern
as it beat him last year. It was the horses that Placed last
time at Sandown that won this race like THE CHEKA but
as he is lighter raced than any similar horse and that does
worry me. Given he is odds on and fails a big trend I think
it is worth giving ZACINTO a chance to win this race.
* Horses aged 4 first time out
* Between 4 and 12 career runs
* Previous Grade 1 form
* At least 3 Career wins
* Horses with that profile have a 8-16 record
* Its a better record than it looks
* 5 of the losers were beaten by the same type of horse
* ZACINTO has that profile and looks interesting
* Given the frame of the race I would be with him e/w
* ZACINTO each way is the suggestion.
Best current odds 7/2 Bet365 Stan James
For all Odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-05-15/newbury/15-05/betting/
Best Wishes
Guy
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Join Guy’s full service to get detailed analysis on multiple races each day.
Click here ==> Betting Advice
Favourites Phenomenon System
May 15, 2010 By Leave a Comment
A horse racing system for backing horses with quite a few positive reviews.
For More Info Click Here ==> Favourites Phenomenon System
Trends/stats for Lockinge (Group 1) at Newbury
May 15, 2010 By Leave a Comment
3.05 Newbury – Lockinge – (Group 1)
15 years of stats/trends
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites 6 wins from 15 for a profit of £3.37 (ROI +22.5%). |
| Market: 13 of the last 15 winners came from the top three of the betting. |
| Price: 14 of the last 15 winners were priced in single figures. |
| Runs this season: Horses making their seasonal debut have a good record with 12 wins. |
| Class LTO: Horses that raced in a Group 1 or Group 2 race LTO have provided 14 of the last 15 winners. |
| Running style: Front runners have performed extremely well winning 6 of the 15 races (5 made all; 1 led after 1f). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses fifth or higher in the betting market have provided just 1 winner from 69 runners for a loss of £48.00 (ROI -69.6%). |
| Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group 3 company or lower LTO have provided just 1 winner from 47 runners for a loss of £37.00 (ROI -78.7%). |
| Position LTO: LTO winners have produced poor returns thanks to just 2 wins from 46 qualifiers for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -69.6%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Fate of the favourites: 1, 3, 4, 7, 4, 1, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 4 |
| Sex: Only 11 fillies/mares have contested the race in the last 15 years but 3 have won. |
| Age: 4 years old have won 9 races from 69 (SR 13.0%); 5 year olds have won 4 races from 36 runners (SR 11.1%); 6 year olds have won 2 races from 15 (SR 12.5%); 7 year olds plus have won 0 races from 9 (SR 0%). |
| Trends analysis: This has been a market driven race with the top three of the betting dominating. Indeed, favourites have a very good record including more recently 4 wins in the last 6 renewals. Seasonal debutants have a good record, as do horses that raced in Group 1 or 2 company LTO. Fillies get a 3lb allowance and they have been successful in 3 of the past 6 seasons which is worth noting. In terms of negatives LTO winners have a surprisingly poor record. From an “in running” perspective front runners have performed well above expectations. |
Best Races For Favourites
May 15, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Best Races For Favourites
If you examine the long term history of individual horse races you will
see that some have a tendency for the favourite to do well and some have
a tendency for the favourite to do poorly.
There are two key measures of good or bad.
- Strike rate of favourites
and
- The profit or loss from betting them.
Below is a quick and ready reckoner to the races historically good for favourites for today’s racing.
Newmarket 2.45
Newbury 3.40
Bangor 4.40, 5.15
Uttoxeter 6.20
Doncaster 6.30, 7.05, 7.35
The above was copied from Dave Renham’s free horse racing blog and are based on his research over many years of past racing.
He puts up similar for free each Saturday.
His paid for service however provides a lot lot more detail.
eg Strike rates, return on investment info for layers pinpointing the poor races for poor favourites PLUS a huge amount of research into other areas of racing such as draw bias trainer stats etc.
If interested in testing out his service for free for a month visit the page below which is a secret page with a free trial deal for Sports Betting Blog readers.
Saturday horse racing stats
May 15, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Sat May 15th 2010
Best races for favourites
Newmarket 2.45
Newbury 3.40
Bangor 4.40, 5.15
Uttoxeter 6.20
Doncaster 6.30, 7.05, 7.35
Trainer stat to note
W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8 or more weeks that start in the top 3 of the betting. Strike Rate is 30.2% with returns of +28.5%. He runs Cape Quarter in the 3.50 at Thirsk who is currently favourite at around 5/2.
Best race for front runners
Thirsk 4.25, 5.00, 5.30
Strong course trainer stats
Newbury
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) | Engagements |
| P W D’Arcy | 8 | 4 | 50.0 | +£31.00 | +387.5 | 4.15 |
| M A Jarvis | 82 | 22 | 26.8 | +£39.98 | +48.8 | 4.15, 4.50 |
| Saeed Bin Suroor | 92 | 21 | 22.8 | +£50.73 | +55.1 | 2.00 |
| H R A Cecil | 60 | 12 | 20.0 | +£29.63 | +49.4 | 1.25, 2.00, 2.30, 3.05 |
*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************
Bluebirds Fly To Play Off Favouritism
May 15, 2010 By Leave a Comment
William Hill…CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFFS….
BLUEBIRDS FLYING HIGH
CARDIFF are now 5/4 favourites to win the Championship Play Offs, ‘Cardiff’s one goal lead from the away tie makes them look clear favourites to at least reach the final’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Hills….To be promoted
Cardiff 5/4
Nottm Forest 5/2
Blackpool 3/1
Leicester 11/2
To qualify from tie
Nottm Forest 5/6
Blackpool 5/6
Cardiff 1/3
Leicester 9/4
League 1 Playoffs O/R
Millwall 11/5
Charlton 13/5
Huddersfield 13/5
Swindon 14/5
To qualify
Millwall 8/11 v Huddersfield Evs
Charlton 8/11 v Swindon Evs
CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY OFFS….11/5 Cardiff; 9/4 Forest; 3/1 Blackpool; 3/1 Leicester.
TO GO THROUGH….4/6 Cardiff; 11/10 Leicester
8/11 Forest; Evens Blackpool
LEAGUE TWO PLAY OFFS
Rotherham 13/5
Aldershot 13/5
Morecambe 13/5
Dag & Red 13/5
To qualify:-
Rotherham 5/6 v Aldershot 5/6
Morecambe 5/6 v Dag & Red 5/6
LEEDS UNITED are 6/1 with William Hill to go straight through the Championship and into the Premier League, following their promotion from League One. ‘Leeds now have the opportunity to live up to their boasts that they are really a Premier League club’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Hills OFFER 11/2 THAT JERMAIN BECKFORD WILL STILL BE A LEEDS PLAYER ON THE FIRST DAY OF NEXT SEASON; 1/10 THAT HE WILL NOT BE. ‘Beckford seems to have had a love-hate relationship with the club, their fans and their manager, and the indications are that he has played his last game for Leeds’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Leeds to win the Championship 20/1
Leeds Promotion 6/1
Leeds to finish top half 1/2
Leeds to finish bottom half 6/4
Leeds to be relegated 12/1
Leeds to beat a Premiership in either cup competition 7/2
Further information…graham sharpe…0780 3233702