A Poor Saturday

Our usual free horse racing tip on a Saturday from Guy at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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There is an Intolerable ammount of Racing today and
on days like this I never finish the messages the clock
finishes me. I could have stretched two extra messages
from the races I havent had a chance to look at. There
are two pieces in the Racing Post about how the racing
is particularly difficult today as it’s dominated by large
field handicaps. Unusual for them to acknowledge it but
it’s true. It is Intolerable and any bets and races finished
will be down to a lot of luck. Might be a frustrating and
a bit untidy today. I fear for anyone betting through it all
and rain and non runners make it more dangerous.

I have no firm properly staked advised bet today
for clients or for free blog readers.
You don’t come out ahead in the long run betting
hard when conditions do not suit.

Need something however today..well ponder the below

D o n c a s t e r   2.05

9/4 Mawasem, 9/2 Grey Mirage, 6/1 Warfare, 8/1 Assizes
10/1 Gold City, 10/1 Shamaal Nibras, 10/1 Well Painted
12/1 Chapter Seven, 14/1 Mister Music, 16/1 Kickingthelilly.

* This is a Class 2  3yo handicap over 8f
* These races are rare and a tiny sample size
* WELL PAINTED – Dont like him from 7f maiden
* Not with just the single run
* GOLD CITY – All seasonal debutants were lighter raced
* KICKINGTHELILLY is too exposed
* MISTER MUSIC – Surely beaten too far 7 days ago
* The above horses are ones I’d avoid
* ASSIZES – Unsafe well beaten on seasonal debut
* SHAMAAL NIBRAS – Not convinced and bad draw

Shortlist

* GREY MIRAGE – An option but don’t like the absence
* MAWASEM – I dont like the record of 3yo maidens much
* None have won with just 2 runs or from 7f races
* He has to be a positive but I cant match him to a winner
* WARFARE – I can forgive him a defeat at York
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Better than he showed last time
* Comes from a hot race where he never had a good position
* Nothing went right and hampered and eased once beaten
* CHAPTER SEVEN could run better than expected

Selection

CHAPTER SEVEN 12/1 Each  Way
at Betfred Bet365 Coral PaddyPower

BIG RACE TRENDS FOR NEWMARKET

Saturday 3.10 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 5 of the last 10 winners came from second to fourth in the betting. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £10.50 (ROI +33.9%).
Last time out winners: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 9/2 and 11/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.50 (ROI +60.3%).
Seasonal debut: 7 of the last 10 winners were making their seasonal debut.
Price LTO: All of the 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO (8 of the 10 were priced 100/30 or shorter).
Draw: The draw figures have now been reversed so the lowest draws are now best (the lowest 6 draws providing 6 of the last 10 winners).
Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race 4 times albeit from 25 runners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 1 wins from 10 for a loss of £7.50 (ROI -75%).
Breeding: American breds have provided just 1 winner and 1 placed from 39 runners.
Front runners: 15 horses have led early or disputed the lead early and all have been beaten.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO have provided just 2 winners from 106 runners for a loss of £77.50 (ROI -73.1%).
Price: Horses priced 40/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 74 runners (4 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Course winners: Course winners have won 3 races from 64 (SR 4.7%); non course winners have won 7 races from 116 (SR 6%).
Trends analysis: In general this has been a market driven race although favourites have had a very poor record over the past 10 years (this is true if you go back 20 years). Horses 2nd to 4th in the betting have proved the most successful and indeed profitable. Last time out winners have a good record and you should focus on these runners – they have won 80% of the races from around 40% of the total runners. Meanwhile horses making their seasonal debut are around 3 times more likely to win than horses that have already run this year (wins to runs ratio). American breds have a poor record and look best avoided.

Saturday 3.45 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes – 5f Group 3 (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 10 for a profit of £1.50 (ROI +12.5%).
Market position: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 of the betting.
Price: Horses priced 15/2 or shorter have produced 8 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. That equates to 60% of the races from which they have provided just 27% of the total runners.
Class LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners raced in a class 1 contest (Listed or Group) LTO.
Trainers: Henry Candy has saddled 2 winners from just 3 runners (Kyllachy and Amour Propre).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Race LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner from 24 for a loss of £21.00 (ROI -87.5%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten by more than 3 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 46 qualifiers.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have won 3 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 20%); 4yos have won 1 race from 36 qualifiers (SR 2.8%); 5yos have won 5 races from 29 qualifiers (SR 17.2%); 6yos+ have won 1 race from 52 qualifiers (SR 1.9%).
Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket or Ascot LTO have provided 6 winners from 48 (SR 12.5%); horses that raced at all other courses have provided 4 winners from 84 (SR 4.8%).
Sex of horse: Male runners have won 9 races from 116 runners (SR 7.8%); female runners have won 1 race from 16 (SR 6.3%).
Trends analysis: Horses priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting is a potential starting point for your analysis with preference for LTO winners. It looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by more than 3 lengths LTO and any horse that ran in a handicap LTO. Another negative involves horses aged 6 or older – they have a poor record.

Sunday 3.15 Newmarket – 1000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 10 for a profit of £1.50 (ROI +15%).
Market: All of the last 10 winners came from the top 7 in the betting.
Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 10/1 and 20/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £33.00 (ROI +63.5%).
Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Class LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners raced in a Group race LTO.
Course LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at Newmarket.
Seasonal debut: 8 of the last 10 winners were making their seasonal debut.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market position: Horses 8th or bigger in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 91 runners.
Price: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 71 runners.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newbury LTO have provided 0 winners from 30 (2 placed).
Distance beaten LTO: Horses that were beaten more than a length LTO have provided just 1 winner from 56.

GENERAL STATS

Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 6f LTO have won 4 races from 28 (SR 14.3%); horses that raced over 7f LTO have won 5 races from 94 (SR 5.3%); horses that raced over 1 mile or more LTO have won 1 race from 45 (SR 2.2%).
Trends analysis: In general the market has been a fairly good guide with favourites actually showing a profit. Indeed, all of the last 10 winners have been from the top 7 in the betting. LTO winners have done well in the recent past, while it has been a positive to have run in Group company LTO. Runners who raced at Newmarket LTO also have a decent record in comparison to the other tracks combined.

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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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Trends/stats for Lockinge (Group 1) at Newbury

3.05 Newbury – Lockinge – (Group 1)

 

15 years of stats/trends

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites 6 wins from 15 for a profit of £3.37 (ROI +22.5%).
Market: 13 of the last 15 winners came from the top three of the betting.
Price: 14 of the last 15 winners were priced in single figures.
Runs this season: Horses making their seasonal debut have a good record with 12 wins.
Class LTO: Horses that raced in a Group 1 or Group 2 race LTO have provided 14 of the last 15 winners.
Running style: Front runners have performed extremely well winning 6 of the 15 races (5 made all; 1 led after 1f).

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses fifth or higher in the betting market have provided just 1 winner from 69 runners for a loss of £48.00 (ROI -69.6%).
Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group 3 company or lower LTO have provided just 1 winner from 47 runners for a loss of £37.00 (ROI -78.7%).
Position LTO: LTO winners have produced poor returns thanks to just 2 wins from 46 qualifiers for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -69.6%).

 

GENERAL STATS

Fate of the favourites: 1, 3, 4, 7, 4, 1, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 4
Sex: Only 11 fillies/mares have contested the race in the last 15 years but 3 have won.
Age: 4 years old have won 9 races from 69 (SR 13.0%); 5 year olds have won 4 races from 36 runners (SR 11.1%); 6 year olds have won 2 races from 15 (SR 12.5%); 7 year olds plus have won 0 races from 9 (SR 0%).

 

Trends analysis: This has been a market driven race with the top three of the betting dominating. Indeed, favourites have a very good record including more recently 4 wins in the last 6 renewals. Seasonal debutants have a good record, as do horses that raced in Group 1 or 2 company LTO. Fillies get a 3lb allowance and they have been successful in 3 of the past 6 seasons which is worth noting. In terms of negatives LTO winners have a surprisingly poor record. From an “in running” perspective front runners have performed well above expectations.

Ascot Horse Racing Tip

ASCOT 12.55

4/1 Noakarad De Verzee, 5/1 River Ripples, Skipper´s Lad
6/1 Plein Pouvoir, 6/1 Pure Genius, 10/1 Knighton Combe
12/1 Flaco, 14/1 Plane Painter, 16/1 Aldiruos, 16/1 Sarahs Gift16/1 Senor Shane.

There has been 87 of these Novice Handicap Chases at
this time of year. No horse with 13 + starts dropped from
3m 3f or more so SKIPPER’S LAD isn’t like any of the
87 winners and is rejected. It’s interesting PURE GENIUS
is a mare and no mare came from 2m 4f or shorter as she
does so she is unlike any past winner either. None of the
87 winners were aged 10 or more and RIVER RIPPLES
fails that and has to come from 2m 4f or more so I dont
want him. I do wonder if PLEIN POUVOIR did enough
on his seasonal debut beaten 36 lengths just 18 days ago
and he surely isnt a certain stayer. FLACO isnt a negative
but I am happy to ignore him with 2 runs and coming via
a Novice Hurdle for Desert Orchid’s owner. My choice is
NOAKARAD DE VERZEE. Lightly raced. Unusual form
mixing Point to Points and Hunter Chases before he ran
well at Chepstow in a Handicap Chase. I think the issue
is whether he can win a 0-115 chase and the evidence of
his last run strongly suggests he can and I think he may
be very well handicapped and he could well outclass these.

SELECTION – NOAKARAD DE VERZEE

Now best priced 11/4 Ladbrokes, Hills, PaddyPower, Coral, VC

Provided by Guy Ward

To visit His site click here == > Racing Tips