Draw Bias Stats
The draw can play a very important role in flat racing.
There are proven biases to certain stall positions over certain course and distances.
Dave Renham is renouned as on of the uk’s leading experts on Draw Bias.
One small element of his daily messages to clients at his Racing Trends service is a section detailing any significant draw bias for that day’s racing.
I have copied today’s Draw Bias section for you below.
If you are the sort who likes to think about their racing and who prefers to make your own mind up as to what to back or lay instead of just following a tipster you may find the RacingTrends service are great daily resource.
Packed full of well researched stats and info it can only help your decission making.
Contact me here at sports betting blog and I should be able to arrange a short free test period trial for you.
DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.
|Course & distance (time)||Bottom third win %||Middle third win%||Top third win%|
|Bath 5f (1.45)||10||0||90|
|Bath 5f161yds (5.40)||65||4||30|
|Chester 5f (1.40)||82||9||9|
|Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35)||21||63||16|
|Doncaster 1m (1.50, 4.50)||27||36||36|
|Kempton aw 5f (5.50)||44||41||15|
|Kempton aw 1m (7.20)||37||33||29|
|Kempton aw 7f (9.20)||41||34||25|
|Newcastle 1m (2.00, 2.35)||38||31||31|
|Newcastle 6f (3.10)||19||30||52|
|Newcastle 5f (5.25)||37||21||42|
Bath 5f (1.45) higher draws do best here as low draws tend to go off too quickly. There are only 10 races in this sample so the bias is not as strong as it looks!
Bath 5f161yds (5.40) high draws used to dominate, but it seems lower drawn runners go off at a more steady pace these days hence being more able to take advantage of the bend.
Chester 5f (1.40) low draws have a very significant edge over this C&D. The lower the draw the better.
Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) low draws are perceived to have an edge over this extended 7f, but the figures suggest this is not the case. The value lies with middle drawn horses.
Kempton aw 5f (5.50) low draws have the edge here with higher draws struggling.
Kempton aw 7f (9.20) high draws struggle a little over this distance. Low draws tend to have an advantage when the field size hits 13 runners or more.
Newcastle 6f (3.10) high draws do best and occasionally completely dominate races.
Newcastle 5f (5.25) low draws tend to have the edge, especially in bigger fields, or when the stalls are placed far side (low). However, in fields of 10-12 with the stalls placed stands side, high draws can have an edge.