Draw Bias Stats

Draw Bias Stats

The draw can play a very important role in flat racing.

There are proven biases to certain stall positions over certain course and distances.

Dave Renham is renouned as on of the uk’s leading experts on Draw Bias.

One small element of his daily messages to clients at his Racing Trends service is a section detailing any significant draw bias for that day’s racing.

I have copied today’s Draw Bias section for you below.

If you are the sort who likes to think about their racing and who prefers to make your own mind up as to what to back or lay instead of just following a tipster you may find the RacingTrends service are great daily resource.

Packed full of well researched stats and info it can only help your decission making.

Contact me here at sports betting blog and I should be able to arrange a short free test period trial for you.

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DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

Course & distance (time) Bottom third win % Middle third win% Top third win%
Bath 5f (1.45) 10 0 90
Bath 5f161yds (5.40) 65 4 30
Chester 5f (1.40) 82 9 9
Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) 21 63 16
Doncaster 1m (1.50, 4.50) 27 36 36
Kempton aw 5f (5.50) 44 41 15
Kempton aw 1m (7.20) 37 33 29
Kempton aw 7f (9.20) 41 34 25
Newcastle 1m (2.00, 2.35) 38 31 31
Newcastle 6f (3.10) 19 30 52
Newcastle 5f (5.25) 37 21 42

Bath 5f (1.45) higher draws do best here as low draws tend to go off too quickly. There are only 10 races in this sample so the bias is not as strong as it looks!

Bath 5f161yds (5.40) high draws used to dominate, but it seems lower drawn runners go off at a more steady pace these days hence being more able to take advantage of the bend.

Chester 5f (1.40) low draws have a very significant edge over this C&D. The lower the draw the better.

Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) low draws are perceived to have an edge over this extended 7f, but the figures suggest this is not the case. The value lies with middle drawn horses.

Kempton aw 5f (5.50) low draws have the edge here with higher draws struggling.

Kempton aw 7f (9.20) high draws struggle a little over this distance. Low draws tend to have an advantage when the field size hits 13 runners or more.

Newcastle 6f (3.10) high draws do best and occasionally completely dominate races.

Newcastle 5f (5.25) low draws tend to have the edge, especially in bigger fields, or when the stalls are placed far side (low). However, in fields of 10-12 with the stalls placed stands side, high draws can have an edge.

 

 

 

 

Soccer Tip On Over Under Market

A free soccer tip today for the blog from Lady tipster Louise from the Soccer Tip website. What do ladies know about football? Well in Louise’s case obvioulsy a fair bit judging by her historic bank growing record.  In her case she does have a degree in maths so she does have an edge on posts punters male or female when it comes to issues such as working out what the true odds for an event should be.

Her free tip this weekend comes from the American MLS a league she has been very past profitable on.

She will very soon be having action on the likes of the Premier League but is holding off for now till this seasons team form is more bedded in.

Anyhow here is her free tip for today.

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League – America MLS
Kick Off Time – 21:00 BST
Teams & Selection – Montreal v DC United OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.82 Pinnacle – 1.80 PaddyPower
Stake – 1.5pts
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the price to be around 1.62


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Special Deal

See page below for a cheap test of the Soccer Tip service.

http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk/offers/sports-betting-blog/

 

 

 

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Return On Capital Betting Tipsters

It can often be quite tricky to evaluate and compare two different betting tipsters.

The same goes for comparing two systems or methods of your own design you are pondering investing a betting bank on.

Level stakes profits and profit on turnover are two common key measures used for such a thing. Unfortunately alone they fall well short of providing you with a good answer.

Additional insight can be gained once you start to ponder the concept of Return on Capital on your betting bank.

What you really want to know is which tipster or method is better at growing your bank.

Rather than re invent the wheel here I will instead direct you to the article below.

 

==> Return On Capital Betting Tipsters

 

 

Scottish Premier League Bet

Match of the Day is not yet on our TV screens but the new soccer season has already started you know.

Outside the Premiership quite a few leagues are already underway.

The Socottish Premiership is one of them.

With the relegation of Rangers it looks to be a one horse race in the ante post soccer betting markets this year. Coral are top price about Celtic at 1/33. Compared to the 1/66 available in many others spots pureist may even argue that 1/33 is value but I am not having it myself.  I could get better interest in my bank with no risk of loss.

There are better value Scottish bets than that available.

One for todays action comes from Phil Brown the ex bookmaker turned long term profitable tipster.

Here is a copy of his message for today.

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A little later than usual tonight, as its been a hard slog with a lack of firms pricing up certain markets making life difficult.
However we do have one selection to place as St Mirren travel to newly promoted and injury hit Dundee…

Dundee v St Mirren (3:00pm)
St Mirren DRAW NO BET at Evens William HillBlue SquareLadbrokes 20/21 Stan James 1pt

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Nb Phil has an excellent long term record of net profit.

You can test out his service for just £1 at the link below

Football Betting Tips

 

 

 

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Each Way Betting Discussion

Each Way Betting Advice

The following discussion from this morning regarding betting each way was lifted from the full member area at www.PunterProfits.com

Worth a read to any one who has ever bet a horse each way.

PunterProfits as a site.. well worth closer investigation if you are a thinking
punter.

There are many highly profitable tipping threads in the private forums there
whose results would blow any £2k a year glossy slick marketed tipster
away.


Not sure where to post this but here goes. I thought it could be useful for
some discussions/articles on general betting techniques and practices. I think
that there are some techniques that we can all learn from each other that will
improve our returns.

I would be interested to hear people’s thoughts on betting each way. I personally
rarely bet each way, with the exceptions of 8 or 16 horse races or if the market
has a particular shape eg odds on fav with 2 dangers and then mostly longer
odds. I notice a lot of threads where selections are advised each way so am
interested to understand what the stats are on this or whether it is just a
matter of personal preferences. I do think that there are definite situations
where value can be obtained each way (indeed there is a thread for 16 runner
handicaps) so hope this might be a useful topic for discussion.

Carl


I ONLY back in 16+ handicaps and always each way as its mainly the place money
I want. I have constantly made money doing this and run a small service to 10
other people and have done so for the last five years.

REASON is that in my opinion big handicaps are the only races that offer value
as bookmakers struggle to make ther books up early in these races. My problem
is that nearly all the book makers will not take my bets anymore, or just offer
me crappy sp – Betfair offers poor value early on as there is never enough money
to get a decent bet on, thats the reason I went down the tipster route.

I do not back any other method or follow anyone else on the site. Yesterday
I had 10 bets – NO winners, I few seconds unfortunatly but 5 did place @ 25/1
16/1 16/1 20/1 25/1 but still made a nice profit at just £10EW.

The method I use is Value, value value + a little bit of form smile.gif

To me its the only route to go, as following the short end of the market will
lead you to busto smile.gif

GL Padman


Hi Carl

Sounds like you are starting from the mathematical angle

of seeking race frames that offer each way advantage.

eg classic case of 8 runner race with a very short price favourite.

16 runner handicaps as per Padman again is in that realm.

It can throw up potential as well for the odd each way double.

More so a case of not taking the starting point of

I am going to find a few random horses to each way double every day,

instead .. the markets are throwing up this opportunity today

with two good each framed races.

eg say for arguments sake you have two horses with a

calculated zero positive or negative edge on the win side

but 10% value on the place side.

The double factors up that value to about 21%

It is another style of selective punt that the bookies do not like very much
smile.gif

A totally different angle on each way betting is from a bank management perspective.

eg If you ask the rough question of “I have fixed capital of £1000..

How best to I manage my betting of this method for optimal growth.”

Well sometimes an each way approach can be advantageous.

Likes of Kelly formulae will indicate % bank to use will vary with both ROI
and strike rate.

With each way betting there is potential to increase strike rate / reduce losing
run length

and draw downs etc.

That can permit additional aggression in terms of % bank which can in turn lead
to faster growth rate.

However not something to go into blindly.

More so done after research of a particular approach or method indicates is
favourable to do so.

In the back of my head I recall some research ( possibly by Dave ) indicating
each way

was less profitable than on the nose assuming random horse selections.

eg picture two betting shop mug punters who over the year each bet the same
randomly selected 500

horses at 10/1 over the course of a year.

The punter who bets each will have much more pleasurable experiences when landing

place returns. The win only punter may endure losing runs with much fewer pleasurable
days.

However add up at year end what they have won or lost and the win only punter
will have

lost less than his each way betting mate.

So for average betting shop mug punters who often focus “on the day”
rather than long term

each way can be a psychological trap set by the bookmaker.

But it is also an exploitable trap by the shrewd who can identify the correct
frame of race

where the maths and numbers move from bookmaker to punter.

Cheers

Mick

In Play Betting Software

I got news in my inbox the other day about some new in play betting software called Market Monitor All Sports Pro.

Not only is it for pure in play traders but it can also be used to pre set up bets you wish to make in play ( or before the off )

It’s the sort of thing that might be of interest to my mate Dave Renham over at RacingTrends whom I know does a lot of personal back then lay back in running betting based on his pace figures. ( or of course some of his subscribers who get his pace ratinsg each day )

[ I don't want to go into an indepth explanation of pace figures here..but in short they are a measure of a horses ability to take an early lead. ( and likely shorten in price in running )

Pace bias also aplies to track and distance configurations.  Dave is the expert. Go and ask him :)   ]

An interesting feature of the market monitor software is how it can visually present odds. Instead of just a jumble of numbers there are coloured bars for each horse. They increase or shorten in length depending on live prices.

A picture paints a thousand words as they say as this extra graphical representation of live market odds I can see some finding favor with.

The software itself is not super cheap at over £200 but on the upside it’s a one off fee. You don’t get stuck with monthly usage charges. £25 a month sounds cheaper for example but over a year or two years it costs you in the long run compared to an outright buy.

It’s best judged as an extra tool you may wish to add to your betting tool kit.

It will speed up in play betting compared to you using the Betfair site.

Visual odds representation is semi cool.

You can give it instructions in the morning or even night before about bets to make etc then go out and have fun leaving it to sit all day watching markets for you.

What it bets on will be your decissions however.

It’s not a tipster bot type thing.

Anyhow..in short semi interesting looking and you might want to nosey around and check it out for yourself.

Market Monitor All Sports Pro

Tentacled Tipster Gives Bookies More Reason To Cheer

The news that Paul The Octopus has retired is music to the ears of bookmakers William Hill. “The predict-o-pus’s eight winning selections have helped superstitious punters to collect half a million from bookmakers coffers and anyone who bet £10 on each of the outcomes will have scooped £89.95 each, while those who “rolled” their money over onto the next outcome ended up with £1623.34.

“Picking all seven outcomes of Germany’s games, as well as the outcome of the World Cup final is quite some feat,” added Crilly. “We are thankful that Paul has now retired, and will happily give him a few s-quid towards a retirement aquarium to keep him that way. He has emerged as the star of the World Cup, and retiring at his peak will ensure that he goes down in history as a leg-end.”

William Hill Paul Specials:

5/1 To be given tipster column in British national newspaper.
33/1 To Accept a transfer to Spain
50/1 To Be Released Into The Wild
100/1 Squidnapped by distraught German fans .
250/1 Eaten by the German team on return from the World Cup
500/1 King Juan Carlos to confer Spain’s highest honour, the Order of the Golden Fleece, on the Octopus

Further Information…Joe Crilly…0208 918 3746