1.25 Kempton
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Conditions
Racing To The Last
December 26, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Trends For Cheltenham
December 10, 2011 By Leave a Comment
3.05 Cheltenham – International Hurdle – 2 miles 1f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 for a profit of £4.69 (ROI +42.6%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. |
| Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts (this stretches back to the last 17 renewals). |
| LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record producing 6 winners from 20 for a profit of £33.79 (+169%). Indeed focusing on the runners that raced in the Greatwood Hurlde LTO this improves to 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £40.42 (ROI +367.4%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 23. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 16 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 years olds have won 2 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 13.3%),5 year olds have won 4 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 26.7%); 6 year olds have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 14 qualifiers (SR 14.3%); 8 year olds and older have won 1 race from 16 qualifiers (SR 6.3%). |
Trends analysis: the best starting point looks to be horses that finished in the first three LTO as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. From there, look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a good record, especially those that ran in the Greatwood hurdle LTO.. Favourites also have a very good record. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding. In terms of age, 5 year olds have done well.
Provided by www.RacingTrends.co.uk
Racing To The Last
December 5, 2011 By Leave a Comment
1.40 Plumpton
If your horse leads on landing at the final hurdle and fails to win in this race, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions
Chepstow Racing Tip
December 3, 2011 By Leave a Comment
A good effort from Guy last week in the Hennessy with each way advised Planet Of Sound coming 2nd. It was particulary sweet for those who followed the highlighted race offer from Betfred as
#1 Their best odds guantee paid out the 14/1 Starting price not the 12/1 early price
#2 The offer on that race returned the win bet stake if your horse finished second.
On to today and other free racing tip from Guy.
Interesting one this as it demonstrates the use of each way at shortish odds.
Most mug punters only consider each way if the place returns a net profit on a bet. eg 5/1 plus or more is a typical mug punter cut off point for each way.
Mathematically however such an idea is not correct.
Short odds horses can be great value each way in the right circumstances.
To visit Guys site click here ==> Betting Advice
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C h e p s t o w 1.30
2/1 Curtain Razer, 9/4 Knock A Hand, 7/2 Rojo Vivo
7/1 Diamond Sweeper, 14/1 Gores Island
16/1 Caulfields Venture, 33/1 Finnegan Paddy
33/1 The Bear Trap, Wheres Wal, Chesil Beach Boy
40/1 Le Chasse Spleen, Young Jim, Caught Inthe Light
66/1 Malin Head, 100/1 Waywood Princess
200/1 Radmores Sam Evans.
* This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* ROJO VIVO comes from a Bumper last year
* Not a good enough profile to go with him
* The 5yo’s doing that best had 1-2 runs and he has 4
* Not a negative but there are better profiles
* DIAMOND SWEEPER – Unsafe despite the above profile
* He hasn’t yet achieved enough
* GORES ISLAND – Very weak profile
* CAULFIELDS VENTURE – Not enough I like
* CURTAIN RAZER didnt impress me statistically
* I looked at 5 year olds from Novice Hurdles
* One career run and One that season
* There were 3 winners with that profile
* These 3 winners all came from 2m races though
* Those however from 17f or more were 0-70
* Could be a statistical blip but he fails that
* CURTAIN RAZER is opposed
Selection
KNOCK A HAND Each Way 3/1 +
* KNOCK A HAND looks the safest choice
* Unorthodox profile aged 6 winning a maiden hurdle
* I found 2 horses with his profile and one of them won
* KNOCK A HAND has a better profile than the rest
When KNOCK A HAND won last time over 2m 4f on
Heavy ground it was his sires first National Hunt winner
on soft or heavy ground over 2m 4f. I am hoping that’s
something he can repeat. If he can’t then horses with a
weaker profile like Curtain Razer and Rojo Vivo will go
on and win. If he can repeat that and he does truly get
the trip on the ground then he has the strongest chance.
In a nicely framed race he looks the percentage call e/w.
* KNOCK A HAND 10/3 BoyleSports William Hill Each Way is my selection
.
Racing To The Last
November 30, 2011 By Leave a Comment
2.10 Uttoxeter
If your horse leads on landing over the final hurdle jumped, but fails to win this race, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions
Money-Back Special – Racing To The Last!
November 21, 2011 By Leave a Comment
2.35 Kempton
Money-Back Special
If your horse leads on landing at the final hurdle jumped in this race, but fails to win, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions
Racing To The Last!
November 21, 2011 By Leave a Comment
2.35 Kempton
If your horse leads on landing at the final hurdle jumped in this race, but fails to win, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions
10 year trends Cheltenham – Sat/Sun
November 12, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Paddy Power trends for 4 races
Saturday 1.20 – JCB Triumph Novices’ hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m½f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting (4 wins for favourites). |
| Price: Horses priced 11/2 or shorter have won 8 of the last 10 races. |
| Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Sires: The sire Kalanisi has had 4 runners of which 2 have won and 1 other has
placed. |
| Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Alan King and Paul Nicholls. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Sex of horse: 15 fillies have taken part and none have won. |
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 65. |
| Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 32 runners for a loss of £26.50 (ROI -82.8%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Breeding: Irish bred runners have won 50% of the races from 34% of the total runners. |
Trends analysis: this has been a market dominated race with the top 2 in the betting dominating. Indeed it seems that you can draw a line through around half the runners as 10/1 has been the cut-off point (all 10 winners priced 10/1 or shorter). LTO winners have a solid record and trainers Alan King and Paul Nicholls should be respected. In terms of negatives, both British bred runners and fillies look worth avoiding.
Saturday 2.35 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3) – 2m4½ f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 4 of the last 10 winners have been favourite and backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £9.25 (ROI +92.5%). |
| Price: Horses priced between 12/1 and 20/1 have provided 4 winners. |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO. |
| Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Trainers: 4 wins for the Pipe stable, but none since David took over from his father. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at Aintree LTO have provided just 1 winner from 31 for a loss of £25.50 (ROI -82.3%). |
| Handicap LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 3 winners from 116 for a loss of £91.75 (ROI -79.1%). |
| Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 37. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 7 year olds have produced 5 winners from 42 qualifiers (SR 11.9%); 8 year olds have provided 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds plus have provided 1 winner from 39 qualifiers (SR 2.6%). |
Trends analysis: favourites have a good record, but also so do runners priced 12/1 to 20/1. A better market to take note of is the LTO market for each runner as 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter on their most recent start. LTO winners have a fairly good record, while runners that have poor records include horses aged 9 and older, British bred runners and horses that raced in a handicap LTO.
Sunday 1.10 – Independent Newspaper Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2 miles
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a small profit of 81 pence. |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top two in the market. |
| Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks (35 days). |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won last time out. |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourites on their most recent start. Backing all such runners would have produced a profit of £8.81 (ROI +44.1%). |
| Price: Horses priced 100/30 or shorter LTO have provided 8 of last 10 winners. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 9/4 or shorter LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Running style: 8 of the last 10 runners have either led early or raced close to the pace. |
| Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 5 winners from 12 runners. |
| Breeding: Only 4 German bred horses have contested the race but all 4 have won! |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 19 runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 8 qualifiers (SR 25%); 5 year olds have produced 2 winners from 14 qualifiers (SR 14.3%); 6 year olds have produced 5 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 31.3%); 7 year olds plus have provided 1 winner from 22 qualifiers (SR 4.5%). |
Trends analysis: A good starting point is to simply focus on the top two in the betting who have provided 80% of the winners. It is also worthwhile looking at the market of their last run as horses that were priced 9/4 or shorter LTO have an excellent record. Last time out winners have performed well, while for ‘in running’ punters it has been a big advantage to race up with the pace. Trainer wise, Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in the race with 5 wins including the last 3 renewals. In terms of age 6yos have done well, while 7yos and older have not.
Sunday 2.20 – The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle Race (Grade 3) – 2m ½f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting. 2nd favourites have provided of those winners for a profit of £16.00 (ROI +177.8%). |
| Price: Horses priced 9/1 or shorter have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Market position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 3 of the betting LTO. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 9/2 or shorter last time out have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. |
| Age: 5 year olds have a good record with 6 wins from 47 qualifiers for a profit of £12.70 (ROI +27%). |
| Weight rank: The top weight or joint top weight has won the race 4 times from just 12 runners. |
| Trainers: 3 wins for the Phillip Hobbs stable. |
| Running style: 7 of the 10 winners were “held up” off the pace. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Position LTO: Horses who finished 6th or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 31. |
| Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 87. |
| Age: 4 year olds have registered 1 win from 26 runners; 8 year olds plus have produced just 1 winner from 23 runners. |
| Conditional Jockeys: 0 wins from 32 for horses ridden by conditional jockeys. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 3 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 producing a small loss of £2.09. |
Trends analysis: This tends to be a market dominated race with 7 of the last 10 winners being from the top two of the betting, and just 1 winner from 87 for horses priced in double figures. Top weights have won 40% of the races which is unusual for a competitive handicap, especially considering the average field size has been 13. In terms of age 5 year olds have done particularly well. For “in running” punters hold up horses have performed best.
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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Racing To The Last!
June 29, 2011 By Leave a Comment
4.50 Perth
If your horse leads on landing at the final hurdle jumped in this race, but fails to win, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions