3.25 Doncaster
Money-Back Special
If your horse finishes second to Possol in this race, Paddy Power will refund your losing win single stake. Conditions
Money-Back Special – Don’t Settle For Second Best!
March 6, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Saturday Horse Racing Tip
March 6, 2010 By Leave a Comment
I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.
For the free blog I will list just one of them.
If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal
Here is the cheap price link:
*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************
NEWBURY 3.10
Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f
3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.
* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class
The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.
None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.
* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f – 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37
I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged 9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.
SELECTION
BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1
* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco
** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill VC Betfred
Best Wishes
Old Firm Specials
March 6, 2010 By Leave a Comment
*************************William Hill OLD FIRM SPECIALS******************************
Match Odds
Rangers 5/4
Draw 11/5
Celtic 7/4
Handicap Odds
Rangers (-1) 4/1
Tie 23/10
Celtic (+1) 8/13
Rangers (+1) 1/3
Tie 18/5
Celtic (-1) 11/2
Draw No Bet
Rangers 13/20
Celtic 23/20
Double Chance
Rangers or Draw 4/11
Celtic or Draw 4/7
Rangers or Celtic 1/4
BOYD v KEANE
Who will score the most goals?
Kris Boyd 7/4
Tie 11/8
Robbie Keane 2/1
(Both must start or Void)
What will happen first?
Kris Boyd to Score 7/2
Kris Boyd to be substituted 9/2
Robbie Keane to Score 9/2
Robbie Keane to be Booked 11/2
Kris Boyd to Be Booked 6/1
Robbie Keane to be Substituted 6/1
Robbie Keane to be Sent Off 16/1
Kris Boyd to be Sent Off 20/1
Final Whistle 9/1
(Both must start or Void)
1999/2000 Season was the last time Rangers
were unbeaten against Celtic in the SPL
Rangers Not to Lose to Celtic in the SPL this season 6/5
The pressure will grow on Tony Mowbray should
Rangers win this tie.
Rangers to win and Mowbray to leave Celtic
by 5pm on Monday 1st March 10/1
Margin of Victory
Rangers By 1 Goal 14/5
Rangers By 2 Goals 11/2
Rangers By 3 Goal 14/1
Rangers By 4 or More Goals 25/1
Draw 21/10
Celtic By 1 Goal 17/5
Celtic By 2 Goals 8/1
Celtic By 3 Goals 20/1
Celtic By 4 or more Goals 40/1
Come From Behind And Win
Rangers 17/2
Celtic 10/1
Come From Behind And Draw
Rangers 15/2
Celtic 15/2
Come From Behind And Win or Draw
Rangers 4/1
Celtic 9/2
Lead At Half Time And Not Win
Rangers 19/2
Celtic 9/1
First Half Betting
Rangers 2/1
Draw 19/20
Celtic 13/5
Rangers to win and win the SPL 6/4
Rangers to draw and win the SPL 13/5
Rangers to lose and win the SPL 14/5
Celtic to win and win the SPL 13/2
Celtic to draw and win the SPL 10/1
Celtic to lose and win the SPL 16/1
“GOAL”
How many goals will Rangers score?
None 11/5
One 6/4
Two 13/5
Three 13/2
Four or More 14/1
How many goals will Celtic score?
None 17/10
One 11/8
Two 3/1
Three 9/1
Four or More 22/1
Will Both Teams Score?
YES 8/11
NO EVS
How many Goals will be scored in the match?
Under 2 Goals 12/5
Exactly 2 Goals 5/2
Over 2 Goals 5/6
To Keep a Clean Sheet
Rangers 17/10
Celtic 11/5
To Score in Both Halves
Rangers 11/4
Celtic 7/2
Who Will Score the First Goal
Rangers 4/5
Celtic 23/20
No Goal 9/1
Who will Score the Last Goal
Rangers 4/5
Celtic 9/1
No Goal 23/20
To Win to Nil
Rangers 12/5
Celtic 17/5
Teams to Score
Rangers Only 11/4
Celtic Only 19/5
Both Teams 3/4
Neither Team 17/2
Will there be an Own Goal Scored
YES 8/1
NO 1/20
No-one has scored a Hat-trick in an Old Firm game since Ally McCoist in 1983/84
The last Hat-trick in an Old Firm League match was Stevie Chalmers in 1966
Any player to score a Hat-trick in todays match 11/1
Can’t Decide who’ll score first?
First Goalscorers (Coupled)
Kris Boyd or Kenny Miller to score first 2/1
Kris Boyd or Robbie Keane to score first 11/5
Kris Boyd or Morten Rasmussen to score first 11/5
Kenny Miller or Robbie Keane to score first 11/5
Kenny Miller or Morten Rasmussen to score first 11/5
Robbie Keane or Morten Rasmussen to score first 9/4
Anytime Goalscores Doubled
Kris Boyd and Kenny Miller to score at anytime 9/2
Kris Boyd and Robbie Keane to score at anytime 5/1
Kris Boyd and Morten Rasmussen to score at anytime 5/1
Kenny Miller and Robbie Keane to score at anytime 5/1
Kenny Miller and Morten Rasmussen to score at anytime 5/1
Robbie Keane and Morten Rasmussen to score at anytime 11/2
Anytime Wincast
Kenny Miller to score at anytime and Rangers to win 11/5
Kris Boyd to score at anytime and Rangers to win 11/5
Nacho Novo to score at anytime and Rangers to win 16/5
Lee McCulloch to score at anytime and Rangers to win 13/2
Steven Davis to score at anytime and Rangers to win 17/2
Madjid Bougherra to score at anytime and Rangers to win 12/1
Robbie Keane to score at anytime and Celtic to win 3/1
Morten Rasmussen to score at anytime and Celtic to win 3/1
Diomansy Kamara to score at anytime and Celtic to win 13/4
Aiden McGeady to score at anytime and Celtic to win 5/1
Scott Brown to score at anytime and Celtic to win 19/2
“OI REF”
How many times will Robbie Keane be caught offside
Under 2.5 6/4
Over 2.5 1/2
How many times will Kris Boyd be caught offside
Under 2.5 5/4
Over 2.5 4/7
Celtic to have a Goal Disallowed
YES 4/1
NO 1/7
Rangers to have a Goal Disallowed
YES 7/2
NO 1/6
Robbie Keane to have a Goal Disalowed
YES 8/1
NO 1/20
Kris Boyd to have a Goal Disalowed
YES 7/1
NO 1/16
A penalty Awarded in Match
YES 12/5
NO 3/10
Celtic to be Awarded a Penalty
YES 5/1
NO 1/9
Rangers to be Awarded a Penalty
YES 9/2
NO 1/8
Any Player to be Sent Off
YES 9/4
NO 1/3
A Celtic Player to be Sent Off
YES 5/1
NO 1/9
A Rangers Player to be Sent Off
YES 7/1
NO 1/16
Who will Receive the First Card?
Rangers EVS
Celtic 3/4
No Card 14/1
Who will Receive the Last Card?
Rangers EVS
Celtic 3/4
No Card 14/1
Total Cards in the Match
Under 4 10/3
4-6 23/20
Over 6 7/5
Total Rangers Cards
Under 2 12/5
2-3 23/20
Over 3 15/8
Total Celtic Cards
Under 2 3/1
2-3 5/4
Over 3 11/8
What will happen first?
Rangers to be caught offside 7/2
Celtic to be caught offside 4/1
Celtic player to be shown a card 5/1
Rangers player to be shown a card 5/1
Rangers to Score 5/1
Celtic to Score 13/2
Rangers to be awarded a penalty 10/1
Celtic to be awarded a penalty 12/1
Final Whistle 66/1
Which Player will receive the First Card in the match?
Kirk Broadfoot 10/1
Lee Naylor 10/1
Kevin Thomson 12/1
Lee McCulloch 12/1
David Weir 14/1
Glenn Loovens 14/1
Josh Thompson 16/1
Madjid Bougherra 16/1
Nacho Novo 16/1
Aiden McGeady 20/1
Andreas Hinkel 20/1
Danny Wilson 20/1
Darren o’Dea 20/1
Edson Braafheid 20/1
Kris Boyd 20/1
Maurice Edu 20/1
Robbie Keane 20/1
Sasa Papac 20/1
Steve Smith 20/1
Thomas Rogne 20/1
Allan McGregor 25/1
Artur Boruc 25/1
Diomansy Kamara 25/1
Georgios Samaras 25/1
John Fleck 25/1
Landry Nguemo 25/1
Mark Wilson 25/1
Morten Rasmussen 25/1
Steven Davis 25/1
Steven Whittaker 25/1
DaMarcus Beasley 33/1
Kenny Miller 33/1
Kyle Lafferty 33/1
Marc Crosas 33/1
Marc-Antoine Fortune 33/1
Paddy McCourt 33/1
Steven Naismith 33/1
Sung-Yeung Ki 33/1
No Card in Match 14/1
SPL Specials
To win the SPL
Rangers 1/5
Celtic 10/3
To Win SPL w/o Old Firm
Hibernian 10/11
Dundee Utd 13/8
Motherwell 7/1
Hearts 10/1
Aberdeen 25/1
St Johnstone 40/1
To Finish Bottom
Falkirk 6/4
Hamilton 13/8
St Mirren 10/3
Kilmarnock 15/2
St Johnstone 20/1
Rangers to Win the Treble 9/4
(SPL, Scottish Cup and CIS Cup)
Rangers to Win the Double 15/8
(SPL and Scottish Cup)
Celtic to Win the Double 8/1
(SPL and Scottish Cup)
Celtic to Win ANY TROPHY 7/4
Fifth SPL Manager to Go?
Mark McGhee 6/1
Billy Reid 8/1
Tony Mowbray 9/1
Gus McPherson 14/1
Peter Houston 16/1
Jim Jeffries 20/1
Stephen Pressley 20/1
Craig Brown 25/1
Derek McInnes 25/1
Walter Smith 25/1
Jimmy Calderwood 33/1
John Hughes 33/1
No 5th Boss to go 4/5
Graham Sharpe…..0208 918 3731