Thursday racing review

A very good day today:

Falasteen (3.55 Southwell) –was suggested as a back and lay in running option – traded at 4s from 7.43 BSP.

Fastnet Storm (3.25 Haydock) – was suggested as each way value and came 3rd at 12/1

Spirit is Needed (4.35 Haydock) – was suggested as having solid claims in the race and duly WON at 5/1

Don’t Settle For Second Best!

4.35 Haydock
If your selection finishes second to Spirit Is Needed in this race, we will refund your losing single stake. Conditions

Thursday horse racing

On my sister site www.punterprofits.com our laying thread is currently 29 successful lays out of last 30. These are all forecast favourites as well so let’s hope the run continues – nearly 7.5K in profit since starting.

Moving on – bets seem a bit thin on the ground today. Here are some thoughts though:

Falasteen (3.55 Southwell) – looks a back and lay in running option to me.

Fastnet Storm (3.25 Haydock) – a tight race this but this one could offer some each way value. Does need to bounce back after some moderate efforts mind.

Spirit is Needed (4.35 Haydock) – vying for favouritism at around 11/2. That shows what an open race it is though. Has solid enough claims in an open race.

Draw Bias Explained

In flat racing the horses start the race from metal starting stalls.
The draw refers to a horse’s placing / position in the starting stalls.
Draw 1 is on the left, while the highest number is on the right.
On left handed round courses the lowest draw is drawn next to the inside rail;
on right handed courses the highest draw is drawn next to the inside rail.

The draw can be very important at certain courses over certain distances.

This is due to a number of factors – it could be that some horses have an
advantage because they are drawn on the inside and are hence able to
take the shortest route round the bend.
Picture I guess the 400m in athletics and the advantage you would
have on the inside track if starting positions were not staggered.

Another factor that can induce draw bias is the ground.
It could be that the ground close to one of the rails is quicker than the
rest of the course and hence those horse drawn in the right position can
take best advantage of the better ground.

To give you an idea of how strong draw biases can be ponder Chester over
5 furlongs. 5f at Chester is a classic case of a draw bias resulting from track configuration.

Since 1997 horses drawn 1 (on the inside) have won 43 of 205
races which is better than winning 1 race in every five.

You would have made a profit backing all horses drawn 1 over that period.
Compare this to horses drawn 10 or higher who have combined to win just 1 race from 276 runners!

Knowledge of where Draw Bias is likely to occur is very important to have.

Draw Bias stats can be used in a variety of ways.

Well drawn horses should be given much more consideration when analyzing a race for example.
Conversely poorly drawn horses have a severe negative to overcome and
you should be wary if you wish to back them. You may use the draw to
eliminate all the weaker drawn horses in order to make the race easier.

Clearly occasionally these poorer drawn horses will win but overall the stats
will be in your favour. At some courses backing the best drawn horse or best
two drawn horses has made a long term profit – this is a rather simplistic way
of using the draw but it can be profitable.

Indeed you may want to consider backing the best drawn horses in forecasts and tricasts.
For example, looking at Thirsk over 5 furlongs – from 2005 to 2008 in 10+ runner handicaps
(the best races to use draw bias) if you had permed the highest four draws in twenty four
£1 straight tricasts in every race would have yielded a profit of £1265.24 (ROI +175.7%).
If you had permed the highest four draws in twelve £1 straight forecasts in every race would
have yielded a profit of £206.90 (ROI +57.5%).
This bet would have been landed in 12 of the 30 races (40% of races).
These types of forecast / tricast bet offer big returns for a relatively small outlay.

A further way to use Draw Bias information is to look for horses that run well
despite being hampered by a very serious draw bias against it.

A horse that comes 4th for example when very badly drawn could do much better
in a future race if on an equal draw or favourorable draw footing.

Dave Renham

Author Bio:

Dave Renham is a uk horse racing researcher who specialises
in cold hard facts and figures that can be used to open your eyes
to more informed betting propositions.

Draw Bias relative to each days racing is one area he covers in his excellent daily racing stats service.  For more info on this click here ==> Draw Bias

O’ Neill To See Season Out ?

O’NEILL STAYING – BUT WILL HE GO BEFORE END OF 2010/11?

WITH MARTIN O’NEILL reportedly staying with Aston Villa for the 2010/11 season, William Hill have opened a book on whether he will still be there on the final day of that season and offer 2/5 yes, 7/4 no. ‘O’Neill seemed to be weighing up his options carefully towards the end of last season and fans will be pleased that he has decided to stay – but if things don’t go well he could still decide to quit before the end of the forthcoming campaign’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Hills…Where Will Villa Finish 2010/11 ?
1st or 2nd….100/1
3rd or 4th……25/1
5th or 6th…..6/1
7th or 8th….11/10
9th or Lower…..Evs
Further information…..graham sharpe…0208 918 3731

Betting On Becks To Boost World Cup Bid

BETTING ON BECKS TO BOOST WORLD CUP BID

WITH DAVID BECKHAM set to join the team handing over England’s hefty bid to stage the 2018 World Cup in Zurich on Friday, William Hill make England odds-on favourites to win the right to host the competition, at 10/11. ‘Having not staged the tournament since 1966 – which will be over half a century ago by 2018 – there is a strong feeling that it would be appropriate to return here sooner rather than later, and the betting reflects that’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Hills also offer 4/1 Spain/Portugal joint bid; 9/2 Russia; 8/1 Australia; 8/1 Holland/Belgium joint bid; 33/1 USA; 66/1 Indonesia.

Further information…graham sharpe…0208 918 3731…(follow gs on Twitter – sharpeangle