Free Horse Racing Tip LongShots

Last weeks post was titled ” A Poor Saturday ”
As it turned out it was a poor day for the bookies
with Chapter Seven winning at an advised 12/1

We have a full member firm bet running in the 3.10 today.
It is a double digit price horse that will produce a great return if it wins.

If you want to join up read more at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/betting-advice.asp

Our full bets are doing exceptionally well running at about 40% profit on turnover.

As for the free horse racing tip today we again dip into the
profiles and previews section of the main message.

This is highly speculative today covering a few long odds outsiders.

Y o r k  2.05

For Latest Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-06-16/york/14-05/betting

This is a Lady Amateur riders race over 12f. Just looking
for the ideal types. Horses that come up in distance from
8f races like HOT ROD MAMMA have to go and I’d also
be ignoring those from 10f races as well.
I’d ignore the big absences.
Male 4 year olds have struggled in these Ladies races and
I wouldnt want EAGLE ROCK with just 1 race
this season or LEXINGTON BAY another who just fell a
bit short as a 4yo. I dont want 3 year old CAPE SAFARI.
I feel HANOVERIAN BARON needs another race to get
fit. Not keen on the mare ANTIGUA SUNRISE not least
on the ground. CRACKENTORP has good history in this
race and won it last year. This year though he looks a lot
riskier with more weight and only one run this year which
is much fewer than he has had when running in this before.
I wanted more from RED JADE and HALLA SAN looked
too riSky as a 10 year old coming down from a 2m race.
I dont like SIR BOSS’s chance. SCRAPPER SMITH has to
prove he stays and looks short of runs this year. I’d avoid
VEILED APPLAUSE aged 9 and up in distance.

Shortlist

* TROOPINGTHECOLOUR – Scrapes on but unsafe
* ITLAAQ – I wanted more runs this season
* ODIN4S RAVEN – Keep him on side
* HONG KONG ISLAND – Another to shortlist

Selection

Split Stake Bet

* ODIN4S RAVEN 20/1 +
* HONG KONG ISLAND  20/1 +
* ITLAAQ 18/1 +

Put 33% stakes on each at Betfair SP is as simple as way as any to play these.

Best Wishes
Guy

A Poor Saturday

Our usual free horse racing tip on a Saturday from Guy at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

==========================

There is an Intolerable ammount of Racing today and
on days like this I never finish the messages the clock
finishes me. I could have stretched two extra messages
from the races I havent had a chance to look at. There
are two pieces in the Racing Post about how the racing
is particularly difficult today as it’s dominated by large
field handicaps. Unusual for them to acknowledge it but
it’s true. It is Intolerable and any bets and races finished
will be down to a lot of luck. Might be a frustrating and
a bit untidy today. I fear for anyone betting through it all
and rain and non runners make it more dangerous.

I have no firm properly staked advised bet today
for clients or for free blog readers.
You don’t come out ahead in the long run betting
hard when conditions do not suit.

Need something however today..well ponder the below

D o n c a s t e r   2.05

9/4 Mawasem, 9/2 Grey Mirage, 6/1 Warfare, 8/1 Assizes
10/1 Gold City, 10/1 Shamaal Nibras, 10/1 Well Painted
12/1 Chapter Seven, 14/1 Mister Music, 16/1 Kickingthelilly.

* This is a Class 2  3yo handicap over 8f
* These races are rare and a tiny sample size
* WELL PAINTED – Dont like him from 7f maiden
* Not with just the single run
* GOLD CITY – All seasonal debutants were lighter raced
* KICKINGTHELILLY is too exposed
* MISTER MUSIC – Surely beaten too far 7 days ago
* The above horses are ones I’d avoid
* ASSIZES – Unsafe well beaten on seasonal debut
* SHAMAAL NIBRAS – Not convinced and bad draw

Shortlist

* GREY MIRAGE – An option but don’t like the absence
* MAWASEM – I dont like the record of 3yo maidens much
* None have won with just 2 runs or from 7f races
* He has to be a positive but I cant match him to a winner
* WARFARE – I can forgive him a defeat at York
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Better than he showed last time
* Comes from a hot race where he never had a good position
* Nothing went right and hampered and eased once beaten
* CHAPTER SEVEN could run better than expected

Selection

CHAPTER SEVEN 12/1 Each  Way
at Betfred Bet365 Coral PaddyPower