Supreme Novices Hurdle
Cheltenham Festival – March 15th
If Cue Card wins the Supreme Novices Hurdle, we’ll refund all losing singles on this race. Conditions
Right On Cue
March 15, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Right On Cue
March 15, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Cheltenham Festival – March 15th
If Cue Card wins the Supreme Novices Hurdle, we’ll refund all losing singles on this race. Conditions Day 1 Live blog
Cheltenham trends Tuesday
March 15, 2011 By Leave a Comment
1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners won last time out. |
| Previous hurdle form: The last 10 winners have all come into the race having won at least 50% of all their previous hurdle races |
| Trainers: 7 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price 25/1+: 1 win from 100 (loss of £59.00; ROI -59%). |
| Running style: Only 2 winners in the last 10 years have won from racing from well off the pace (eg. midfield / back half of the field) from 114 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 12 (loss of £0.75; ROI -6.5%). |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 3, 1, 1, 1, 13, 5, 3, 2/11/12, 5, 3 |
| Age: 4yos have won 0 races from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 5yos have won 3 races from 89 qualifiers (SR 3.4%); 6yos have won 5 from 73 qualifiers (SR 6.8%); 7yo+ have won 2 from 30 (SR 6.7%). |
| Breeding: Irish breds have won 7 races from 92 (SR 7.6%), British breds have won 3 from 47 (SR 6.4%) while all other countries have combined for 0 wins from 64. |
| Trends Summary: The best starting point looks to be recent form with 8 of the last 10 winners having won LTO – this is despite Menorah bucking this trend last year (he had finished 2nd LTO). With only 1 winner priced 25/1 or bigger since 2000 it seems best to leave outsiders alone, and in addition you do not want to be backing genuine hold up horses. In terms of breeding it definitely looks best to stick with British and Irish breds. Age wise 6yos and older have had the edge over 4 and 5 year olds. |
2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO. |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from runners 2nd to 5th in the betting. Focusing on those priced between 7/2 and 9/1, they have provided 9 winners from 34 runners (PROFIT of £35.50; ROI +104.4%). |
| Chase record: 9 of the last 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on all completed chase starts. |
| Race type LTO: All of the last 10 winners raced in a Novice Chase LTO. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 1 win from 10 (LOSS of £7.75; ROI -77.5%). |
| Price 10/1+: 0 winners and 8 placed from 92 qualifiers. |
| Running style: No horse has made all the running in the last 10 years – a stat that goes back to at least 1988. |
GENERAL STATS
| Finishing positions of favourites: 3, 2, 1, F, 7, 7, 2, 3, F, 8 |
| Age: 5yos have won 2 races from 24 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 6yos have won 1 from 26 qualifiers (SR 3.8%); 7yos have won 5 races from 53 qualifiers (SR 9.4%); 8yos+ have won 2 from 35 (SR 5.7%). |
| Trends Summary: Look for horses that have finished 1st or 2nd on every completed start over fences. The runners just behind the market leader (2nd to 5th in betting) have been the value providing 9 winners. Indeed all winners have been 9/1 or shorter in price. Favourites have a poor win record with 1 win from 10, and going back to 1992 it stands at 2 from 18. In terms of age, 8 year olds and older tend to struggle, although Sizing Europe was 8 when he won last year. Before that win however, 8yos+ were 1 win from 69 stretching back to 1991. |
2.40 Handicap Chase
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Form: 9 of the last 10 winners won at least one of their last six starts. |
| Market: 6 of the last 10 winners have come from 2nd to 4th in the betting (PROFIT £19.50; ROI +69.6%). |
| Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO (6 won). |
| Official rating: All of the last 10 winners were rated between 129 and 143. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 14 (LOSS of £8.00; ROI -57.1%). |
| Age: Horses aged 11 or older provided 0 winners from 30. |
| Weight: Horses carrying 11st or more have provided 0 winners from 59 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Finishing positions of favourites: 2/5, 6, 3/11, 8, 9, PU, 2/3/6, 3, 1, 2 |
| Trends Summary: At least one win in the last six runs combined with a lowish weight are the key positive factors here. In terms of negatives it looks best to avoid horses aged 11 or older and/or horses carrying 11st or more. Favourites have a poor recent record too in terms of wins and the long term picture is bleak also with just 3 wins for market leaders since 1969. |
3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Price: 5 of the 10 winners were priced in double figures. |
| Course form: 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won or been placed at the Cheltenham Festival (7 had won). |
| Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 51 days. |
| Age: Horses aged 7 or 8 have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: Horses aged 5 or younger provided 1 winner from 30; 9yo+ provided just 1 win from 27. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 3 wins from 11 (LOSS of £2.22; ROI -20.2%). |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 1, PU, 3, 2, 1/9, 1, 6, 14, 3, 10 |
| Trends Summary: Previous win and placed form at the Festival has been important with the last 9 winners having previously achieved this (7 had won). The only one that had not was Sublimity and he had finished 4th in a previous festival. Horses that won LTO not surprisingly do well with 8 of the last 10 winners having won on their previous start. Indeed, going back further, 23 of the last 27 winners had won LTO. All winners have run within the past 2 months, while in general it pays to focus on 7 and 8yos who have provided 60% of the winners from 36% of the total runners. |
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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Cheltenham Betting Cash Back
February 19, 2011 By Leave a Comment
I got the following news from BoyleSports yesterday.
It looks like a pretty good deal to me.
For a normal punter it gives you some great insurance against your horse finishing a frustrating second at Cheltemham
Trader and arber mentalities can also build in extra edge.
eg Back at BoyleSports then trade back on Betfair and hope it comes second.
If you don’t have an account with them open one up today I suggest so you arer prepared and ready. For new account openers there is the extra bonus of a £20 free bet.
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Every 2nd Counts
If your horse finishes 2nd in any of the following races on Day 1, we will refund all losing bets on that horse:
1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy
2.40 Festival Handicap Steeple Chase
3.20 Champion Hurdle
Terms and Conditions
· Max return €300 or £250 per customer per race.
· Refund will be made in cash.
· Applies to win singles or the win part of each way singles only.
· Does not apply to singles as part of multiple bets.
· Applies to all bets placed from time of offer launch (Thursday 17th February).
· This offer does not affect our ante post rules.
· We reserve the right to alter or withdraw the promotion at any time.
Best Price Guaranteed
Not only that but we are also offering Best Price Guaranteed on all UK and Irish Racing including the Cheltenham Festival. Take an early price or board price & if the starting price is greater, we will pay the better price.
Also if you are a new customer you can Get A free £20 Bet !
To take advantage of this visit BoyleSports
Tip for Racing Favourite
July 17, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Full members got a nice winner yesterday at about 20 /1 early odds.
On the free blog this Saturday I am posting up a much shorter odds selection.
Best profile today I feel is RUSSIAN GEORGE at Market Rasen
in the Novice Hurdle at 4.10pm but he is a shortish
price and does not get the juices flowing because of
that. If I wanted to play it very safe I would go with
him in a safe each way double but I think he will win
MARKET RASEN 4.10
B Eyre & Son Ltd Ford Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m1f
11/10 Russian George, 11/8 Sir Frank, 9/1 Society Venue
16/1 Not A Bob, 16/1 Royal Entourage, 25/1 Play To Win
28/1 Carrifran, 50/1 Loyal Knight, 66/1 Sound Of Silver.
This is a 17f Novice Hurdle. I think it is probably a two
horse race. I think SIR FRANK will take some stopping
but the better profile comes from RUSSIAN GEORGE a
4 year old that won last time out and very lightly raced.
* I looked at all Novice’s around this trip at this time of year
* Horses aged 4
* Winning a Novice Hurdle last time out over 2 miles
* Between 1 and 2 Career starts
* No form in higher than a Class 3 race before
* There were 15 horses that had that profile
* 10 of the 15 horses won and they finished in these places
* W W 2 W W 2 W 4 W W 2 W W 3 W
* RUSSIAN GEORGE is the selection
6/5 Paddy Power Bet365 Betfair
Best Wishes
Guy
Racing Tip For Carlisle
April 3, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Free tip form Guy over at mathematician betting is below
To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Tips
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Today is probably the quietest Saturday we will get
for a few months. No Flat cards at all. Kempton is an
awful card on the sand. That just leaves an all chase
card at Carlisle and Haydock where neither card has
a maiden or Novice Hurdle. It’s a very drab saturday.
Our season proper will start on Bank Holiday Monday.
Next week will be a significant week. The Flat starts to
take off and get busy and the Grand National meeting
at Aintree dominates so I can start to give more bets
and have much more choice and variety something I
just have not had this week or today which is awful.
Done what I can looking at a few races today but we
have not been offered anything interesting and Not
close to having a Bet today. There are a few horses
with good solid profiles today but not exceptionally
good ones. Reluctant to go with any horse today at
the top of the message. I’m not going to let the worst
Saturday Cards in months seduce me into a serious bet but
now the Flat is back we will get a lot busier from now on.
If stuck for inspiration today however consider the following
CARLISLE 4.00
More Live Football Betting At Totesport.com
Novices´ Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+) 2m4f
13/8 Mr Woods, 3/1 Finney, 7/2 Youngstown
7/1 Ginolad, 15/2 Heez A Steel.
This is a 2m 4f Novice Chase. There has been 453 similar
races at this time of year. I dont have a big problem with
FINNEY’s absence or the fact he is so lightly raced this
season but any horses that won with his profile had not
come from a Handicap. I couldnt find one from a Novice
Handicap and I wasn’t that impressed with his profile.
* YOUNGSTOWN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not coming down 12f in 17 days
* HEEZ A STEEL has a poor profile
* Exposed horses from hurdles struggled
* None dropped in trip and I thought he was unsafe
* GINOLAD has a difficult profile to read
* He is 10 and most of his career was in Australia
* He won the 2008 Australian Grand National
* Good start to his English career but he has regressed
* I couldnt rule him out but I couldnt find a similar winner
* I thought MR WOODS had the strongest profile
MR WOODS
* Males winning 2m 4f Novice Chase last time
* 13 or more career starts
* 5-6 runs this season
* Running within a month
* There were 20 horses with that profile and 10 won
* The 10 losers finished 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 F
* MR WOODS has a strong profile
5/2 at many including PaddyPower S James BoyleSports Bet365
Money-Back Special – This Banker Won’t Swindle You
March 16, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Money-Back Special
We’ll refund all losing Win Singles if Dunguib wins the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
Conditions
Horse Racing – This Banker Won’t Swindle You
March 16, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Supreme Novices Hurdle
We’ll refund all losing Win Singles if Dunguib wins the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
Conditions
Have your say on our crazy special
Money-Back Special – This Banker Won’t Swindle You
March 16, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Money-Back Special
We’ll refund all losing Win Singles if Dunguib wins the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
Conditions
Horse Racing – This Banker Won’t Swindle You
January 1, 1970 By Leave a Comment
Supreme Novices Hurdle
We’ll refund all losing Win Singles if Dunguib wins the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
Conditions
Have your say on our crazy special