All This Weekend’s NFL Playoff Matches
All live on Sky Sports
Money-Back Special
If this game goes to overtime Paddy Power will refund all losing match handicap bets on that match.
Conditions
Money-Back Special – NFL Playoffs Special
January 15, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Six Winning Tips In A Row?
January 7, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Guy from the Mathematician Site has now given us five winning weekends in a row here on Sports Betting Blog. I know from feed back he helped improve Christmas funds for a few subscribers here.
Can he make it six in a row?
==========================
Mathematician 1153
Lingfield 3.55 – PIPERS PIPING 10/1 Each Way
L i n g f i e l d
Lingfield has a ferocious card. I have half chances in a
lot of races but not sure there is anything good enough
to advise. I nearly did something in the 3.55pm but I’d
run out of time. I like Pipers Piping and City Legend a
bit and although I have not made a strong enough case
for a very strong bet I can go with a mention. Rather
than have City Legend as a saver I will take a simpler
route and suggest PIPERS PIPING each way at 9/1 +
It’s very hard today and I have struggled to find any
really decent bet and I think it’s a dangerous day so
go careful and consider its a particularly tough day.
I see this more as a Fun Bet and no guarantees we are
going to get anything back from it.
L i n g f i e l d 3.55
9/4 Sketchy Evidence, 7/2 Eager To Bow, 11/2 City Legend
13/2 The Strig, 8/1 Pipers Piping, 10/1 Cativo Cavallino
12/1 Hawk Moth, 16/1 Silvee, 20/1 Sienna Blue
25/1 High On The Hog.
No time to look at this handicap in any great detail
but I checked out Sketchy Evidence and would have
opposed him. No winners came from maidens with
2 runs as he does. Only one winner came from a 6f
maiden and that horse had a long absence and I just
see him as shaky. EAGER TO BOW does have the
much safer profile but he didnt excite me and that
aside his draw would put me off him. There are two
I think stand out with recent races in this race.
* CITY LEGEND – Every chance of taking this
* PIPERS PIPING – Looks interesting with better jockey
Selection
PIPERS PIPING 10/1 Each Way at S James
For live market prices see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-07/lingfield-park/15-55/betting/
If you are led personally to City Legend I would not put you off it.
To Visit Guys Site Click Here ==> Betting Advice
10 year trends Sandown Sat 7th Jan 2012
January 7, 2012 By Leave a Comment
1.35 Sandown – 32Red Poker Juvenile Hurdle – class 4 (2m ½f)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There has been 5 winning favourites from 10 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of 86 pence (ROI +8.6%). |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. (N.B. the other two winners were at 50/1 and 66/1). |
| Days since last run: Horses that had last raced between 8 and 14 days previously have provided 4 of the last 10 winners from just 11 runners. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO. |
| Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners raced close to or up with the pace (3 made all). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Sex of horse: 0 wins from 13 for female runners. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger LTO have provided 0 winners from 26. |
| Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 39 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Trainers: No trainer has saddled the winner more than once. |
Trends analysis: Favourites have a good record and despite two big priced winners the market tends to get it right. Past market data has proved useful also with 7 winners having been favourite or second favourite LTO. Good recent form is a plus with 70% of the winners having finished in the first three LTO. In terms of negatives, horses well beaten LTO have a poor record, as do female runners.
2.05 Sandown – 32Red Handicap Chase – Class 2 (2m)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 6 of the last 10 winners were second or third favourites. |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter. |
| Weight rank: 7 of the last 10 winners were 3rd to 5yh in the weights. |
| Position LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners have finished 6th or worse LTO. |
| LTO favourites: Horses that were favourite LTO have provided 5 winners from 15 for a profit of £4.25 (ROI +28.3%). |
| Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 22 runners for a profit of £17.25 (ROI +78.4%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Favourites have provided 2 winners from 10 for a loss of £3.50 (ROI -35%). |
| Market: Horses 4th in the betting or bigger have provided just 2 winners from 42. |
| Headgear: 0 wins from 11 for horses wearing headgear. |
| Breeding: French bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 19 qualifiers for a loss of £15.75 (ROI -82.9%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 & 6 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (0%); 8 year olds have produced 5 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 9 year olds have produced 3 winners from 22 (SR 13.6%); 10 year olds have produced 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%). |
Trends analysis: this race has favoured second and third favourites, while the actual market leaders have provided poor value. LTO form has not been that important with 5 of the winners having been beaten by 20 lengths or more on their most recent outing. 7 of the last 10 winners were ranked 3rd to 5th in the weights, while in terms of age, 8 year olds have done best, with horses 10 or older having struggled.
*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************
Wm Hill S P L And Old Firm Specials
January 2, 2012 By Leave a Comment
SPL and OLD FIRM Specials
Just 5 days ago Rangers were an unbackable 1/20 to be top
of the SPL on New Years day but following the results
on Christmas Eve its all change in this market
TO BE TOP OF SPL ON NEW YEARS DAY
Rangers
4/6
Celtic
11/10
Celtic are unbeaten in the SPL since October and Rangers have
only the two defeats to their name in the SPL all season.
Celtic NOT lose another match in the SPL
15/2
Rangers NOT to lose another match in the SPL
12/1
MATCH ODDS
Celtic
11/10
Draw
11/5
Rangers
2/1
HANDICAP ODDS
Celtic (-1)
3/1
Tie
13/5
Rangers (+1)
4/6
Celtic (+1)
2/9
Tie
9/2
Rangers (-1)
8/1
DRAW NO BET
Celtic
2/5
Rangers
7/4
DOUBLE CHANCE
Celtic or Draw
3/10
Celtic or Rangers
1/4
Rangers or Draw
6/10
TO WIN THIS MATCH AND WIN SPL
Celtic
6/4
Rangers
7/2
TO LOSE THIS MATCH AND WIN SPL
Celtic
4/1
Rangers
11/2
MATCH WINNER OFFERS
Hooper and Jelavic both to score anytime
8/1
Celtic to Score from outside the penalty area
3/1
Rangers to Score from outside the penalty area
4/1
ACTION PACKED MATCH
Red Card in Match
Both Teams to Score
Penalty Awarded in Match
All the above 3 to happen
7/1
Celtic led the last Old Firm match at Half Time before
being beaten 4-2.
HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME BETTING
Celtic to lead at Half Time and Rangers to win match
28/1
Rangers to lead at Half Time and Celtic to win match
22/1
TO LEAD AT HALF TIME AND NOT WIN
Celtic
10/1
Rangers
9/1
Rangers threw away a lead against St Mirren on Christmas Eve
Celtic to Come from Behind and Win or Draw
4/1
Rangers to Come from Behind and Win or Draw
11/2
GOALS GOALS GOALS
Old Firm league matches at Celtic Park always seem to produce
some goals. Only 2 of the last 8 SPL matches at Celtic Park
have produced less than 3 goals and only 2 of the previous
30 matches have ended goalless
Over 2.5 Goals
21/20
Over 3.5 Goals
11/4
Over 4.5 Goals
13/2
Over 5.5 Goals
14/1
Rangers have only failed to score at Celtic Park 3 times from
the last 9 SPL matches.
TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET
Celtic
13/10
Rangers
11/4
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE IN MATCH
Yes
4/7
No
5/4
TO WIN TO NIL
Celtic
21/10
Rangers
5/1
TOTAL CELTIC GOALS
None
11/4
One
8/5
Two
12/5
Three
11/2
Four or More
11/1
TOTAL RANGERS GOALS
None
13/10
One
11/8
Two
18/5
Three
12/1
Four or More
33/1
HAT-TRICK HERO
No-one has scored a Hat-trick in an Old Firm game since
Ally McCoist in 1983/84. The last Hat-trick in an Old Firm
League match was Stevie Chalmers in 1966
Any player to score a Hat-trick in today’s match
18/1
TO SCORE A HAT-TRICK
Gary Hooper
33/1
Georgios Samaras
40/1
Anthony Stokes
40/1
Nikica Jelavic
40/1
Kyle Lafferty
50/1
Sone Aluko
66/1
3 of the last 5 Old Firm games have seen the opening goal
scored in the 16th minute to 30th Minute Bracket
TIME OF FIRST GOAL
1st to 15th Minute
11/5
16th to 30th Minute
3/1
31st Minute to Half Time
4/1
46th Minute to 60th Minute
6/1
61st Minute to 75th Minute
9/1
76th Minute to Full Time
10/1
No Goal
15/2
Will this match explode into action from kick off?
TO SCORE IN THE FIRST TEN MINUTES?
Gary Hooper
25/1
Georgios Samaras
25/1
Anthony Stokes
28/1
James Forrest
35/1
Joe Ledley
66/1
Scott Brown
66/1
Nikica Jelavic
30/1
Kyle Lafferty
35/1
Sone Aluko
40/1
Steven Davis
66/1
Lee McCulloch
80/1
Kyle Bartley
125/1
Singles Only
TO SCORE IN THE LAST TEN MINUTES?
Gary Hooper
16/1
Georgios Samaras
16/1
Anthony Stokes
20/1
Nikica Jelavic
22/1
Kyle Lafferty
25/1
Sone Aluko
33/1
Singles Only
Who will be the hero of the match and net the goal that
clinches the tie
WHO WILL SCORE THE WINNER?
Gary Hooper
8/1
Georgios Samaras
9/1
Anthony Stokes
9/1
James Forrest
14/1
Joe Ledley
25/1
Scott Brown
25/1
Nikica Jelavic
14/1
Kyle Lafferty
20/1
Sone Aluko
20/1
Steven Davis
33/1
Lee McCulloch
50/1
Kyle Bartley
50/1
(Bets settled on the player who scores the LAST goal of the
match for the WINNING Side)
Back the player to Score anytime and their side to win
ANYTIME WINCASTS
Hooper and Celtic
21/10
Samaras and Celtic
12/5
Stokes and Celtic
11/4
Brown and Celtic
17/2
Jelavic and Rangers
9/2
Lafferty and Rangers
6/1
Aluko and Rangers
7/1
McCulloch and Rangers
14/1
GOALSCORER MATCH BETS
Hooper v Jelavic
Gary Hooper
4/7
Nikica Jelavic
5/4
Samaras v Lafferty
Georgios Samaras
4/7
Kyle Lafferty
5/4
Forrest v Aluko
James Forrest
8/11
Sone Aluko
Evs
Brown v Davis
Scott Brown
5/6
Steven Davis
5/6
Kayal v McCulloch
Biram Kayal
5/6
Lee McCulloch
5/6
Both Players must start in the pairings or void
OI REF!
With 6 red cards shown in the last 6 Old Firm Matches will
Willie Colum have to flash the Red Card in this match
RED CARD IN MATCH
Yes
Evs
No
8/11
WHO WILL RECEIVE THE FIRST CARD?
Carlos Bocanegra
10/1
Kyle Bartley
10/1
Lee McCulloch
10/1
Steven Whittaker
10/1
Biram Kayal
12/1
Scott Brown
12/1
Kirk Broadfoot
14/1
Kyle Lafferty
14/1
Nikica Jelavic
14/1
Charlie Mulgrew
16/1
Gary Hooper
16/1
Mark Wilson
16/1
Steven Davis
16/1
Anthony Stokes
20/1
Georgios Samaras
20/1
Joe Ledley
20/1
Lee Wallace
20/1
Maurice Edu
20/1
Thomas Rogne
20/1
Adam Matthews
25/1
Du-Ri Cha
25/1
Emilio Izaguirre
25/1
Ki Sung-Yueng
25/1
Mohamed Bangura
25/1
Sasa Papac
25/1
Sone Aluko
25/1
Victor Wanyama
25/1
Dylan McGeouch
33/1
Greg Wylde
33/1
James Forrest
33/1
John Fleck
33/1
Paddy McCourt
33/1
Thomas Kind Bendiksen
33/1
NO CARDS IN THE MATCH
7/1
PENALTY REF
Kenny Miller is the last player to net a penalty in an Old Firm
match at Celtic Park when he scored last August. That is the
only penalty scored in an Old Firm game at Celtic Park in 7 matches
A Penalty Awarded in The Match
11/4
A Penalty Awarded and Scored
16/5
A Penalty Awarded and Missed
11/1
Celtic Awarded a Penalty and Scored
13/2
Celtic Awarded a Penalty and Missed
20/1
Rangers Awarded a Penalty and Scored
8/1
Rangers Awarded a Penalty and Missed
20/1
When these sides met last season during the festive period
Celtic left Ibrox with all three points thanks to Georgios Samaras
double in a 2-0 win. Samaras has hit some form in the past month
and will be an important player for Celtic on Wednesday.
Samaras to Score Anytime
6/4
Samaras to Score 2 or more
7/1
Samaras to Score with a Header
7/2
Samaras to Score from Outside Penalty Area
5/1
Samaras to Score a Penalty
8/1
Samaras to Miss a Penalty
25/1
Samaras to be booked
2/1
Samaras to be Sent Off
33/1
Singles Only, Samaras must start or void
All the talk on the Rangers side is about the availability of
Lee McCulloch after the club appealed his sending off
against St Mirren on Christmas Eve.
McCulloch to Score Anytime
7/1
McCulloch to Score 2 or more
33/1
McCulloch to Score with a Header
10/1
McCulloch to Score from Outside Penalty Area
14/1
McCulloch to Score a Penalty
12/1
McCulloch to Miss a Penalty
25/1
McCulloch to be booked
13/8
McCulloch to be Sent Off
20/1
Singles Only, McCulloch must start or void
WHAT WILL HAPPEN FIRST?
Rangers Booking
9/4
Celtic Booking
11/4
Celtic Goal
7/2
Rangers Goal
5/1
Celtic Penalty
12/1
Rangers Penalty
14/1
Celtic Red Card
20/1
Rangers Red Card
20/1
OTHER SPL SPECIALS
Dunfermline and Hibernian are only separated by Goal Difference
at the foot of the table. Which one will start 2012 at the bottom?
TO BE BOTTOM OF SPL ON NEW YEARS DAY
Hibernian
11/4
Dunfermline
1/4
TO BE BOTTOM ON NEW YEARS DAY AND FINISH BOTTOM
Hibernian
5/1
Dunfermline
1/2
Will the SPL change much between now and end of season?
WILL THE SIDE WHO IS TOP AND THE SIDE WHO ARE BOTTOM ON
NEW YEARS DAY FINISH THE SEASON IN THOSE POSITIONS?
Yes
6/4
No
1/2
ABERDEEN V HEARTS
Hearts have not lost a goal in their last 5 matches against
the Dons, winning 4 and drawing the other.
Hearts to Win to Nil
16/5
HIBERNIAN v INVERNESS
Pat Fenlon is looking forward to the Transfer Window opening
so that he can strengthen his squad. Inverness will head to Easter
Road confident of grabbing a goal as they have only failed
to score once in their last 9 matches.
Both Teams to Score
5/6
MOTHERWELL v DUNFERMLINE
Dunfermline have been involved in 9 matches this season
where at least 4 goals have been scored.
Over 3.5 goals in Match
2/1
ST JOHNSTONE v KILMARNOCK
Francisco Sandaza marked his return to the Saints side
with a goal at Dunfermline on Saturday.
Sandaza to Score anytime and St Johnstone to win
12/5
ST MIRREN v DUNDEE UTD
Paul McGowan and Jon Daly were the heroes for their sides
on Christmas Eve.
McGowan and Daly both to Score Anytime
15/2
Bold Racing Tip For Lingfield
December 31, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Our Usual free Saturday Tip from Guy at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
Guy is aiming to hit an impressive five winning weekends in a row !
———————————————————-
L i n g f i e l d 2.15
EVEN BOLDER 7/1 + Each Way
I start with a difficult nursery at 12.30 but I feel we
have enough negatives to sort this out. I have made
COMPTON TARGET my selection and had a saver
on Moment In The Sun but I could easily have gone
the other way around. I dont think I will be far away
here but I didn’t really see this bet as selection class.
The short price means SAFARI SUNSEEKER is not
going to be the selection either but a hot profile and
I think he probably will win. I do have a dilemma in
EVEN BOLDER and it is preying on my mind a bit.
In the last two days the best bet in the message won
at 7/1 and 7/2 but only when mentions. Yesterday I
had the first 5 winners at Lingfield and now I come
back to having a selection it would just be so typical
if Lingfield were to bear it’s teeth to throw up some
traffic problems. EVEN BOLDER is often unlucky
and he runs at a track where you need luck so I will
not be surprised I report tomorrow how unlucky he
has been. Emotion and Scare Mongering aside what
a great price he is. Freely available at 8/1 on Betfair
this is the Lowest Class of race he has raced in for
a very long time. He has been beautifully Placed in
this race. He has slipped in nicely into a 0-65 race
for the first time in years and meets opponents he
should be able to beat. We have a Top jockey and
I think he should be closer to 7/2 than 7/1 and he
could be bigger later on. He has to be worth a bet.
L i n g f i e l d 2.15
3/1 Wreningham, 100/30 Griffin Point, 9/2 Royal Bajan
6/1 Dorothy4s Dancing, 7/1 Even Bolder, 12/1 Sherjawy
12/1 Vhujon, 12/1 Welsh Inlet, 25/1 Dells Breezer.
* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There are 104 similar races at this time of year
* DELLS BREEZER – Opposable with 1 run this year from 5f
* DOROTHY4S DANCING is hard to read
* She is a 3yo filly and has just 1 run in the last 59 days
* That would worry me for a filly so lightly raced
* I looked at fillies like her with 9-12 runs and Class 4 form
* I found 1 similar winner a long time ago
* That horse had a stone less weight and more recent run
* DOROTHY4S DANCING – Not a negative but not for me
* I am uncomfortable with her profile
* VHUJON – Doesnt really offer me enough
* Not hard to see him getting outpaced here
* Not sure he is capable of taking this over 5f
* GRIFFIN POINT is 4yo filly from a 5f race
* I found 3 winners with that profile but all had more backclass
* None like GRIFFIN POINT has between 13 and 20 runs either
* She has 17 runs and isnt quite right
* I like the recent run just not the limited backclass
* SHERJAWY is a exposed 7 year old
* He lacks a recent run within 2 weeks
* There were 4 winners but 3 had Listed or Group class backclass
* Those like SHERJAWY who didnt were just 1-45
* That winner ran better than he did last time and with less weight
* SHERJAWY - Not an impressive profile
* He is well handicapped though and not a negative
S h o r t l i s t
* ROYAL BAJAN is 3 from a 5f handicap
* He lacks a recent run and has Class 4 form before
* I found 2 winners like him but with 2 differences
* Both winners ran closer last time than he did
* Both had 8st 11lbs or less and he has 9st 6lbs
* ROYAL BAJAN is not a negative but not quite right
* I’d like less weight and a more recent run
* ROYAL BAJAN has had just 1 race in the last 94 days
* Thats not a lot for a 5f sprinter
* WELSH INLET is an exposed 3yo filly
* She comes from a 5f handicap and has Class 4 form
* I found 2 recent winners bit both ran within 2 weeks
* None with her profile tried to win absent over 2 weeks
* WELSH INLET has a Neutral profile
* WRENINGHAM is an exposed 6yo winning last time
* I found a couple of winners with a similar profile
* One had far more backclass but he ism just about ok
* This is a career high mark though and he is beatable
Selection
* EVEN BOLDER is an 8yo from a 5f race
* All winners his age and over did the same thing
* They all finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time
* EVEN BOLDER beaten 3.5 lengths is not technically right
* Ignore that as he was badly drawn and badly hampered last time
* He could and should easily have been much closer
* This is also a drop in class for him
* When has this horse ever had only a 0-64 field to beat
* EVEN BOLDER has a massive chance for me
* He has spent almost his entire career in better class
* I would see him as a serious runner for all his frustrations
Nb 7/1 was available earlier when full members got this.
Best price now 13/2 at VC
Money-Back Special – Christmas Day NBA Special
December 25, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Boston Celtics At NY Knicks
Sun. 5.05pm ESPN
Miami Heat At Dallas Mavericks
Sun. 7.30pm ESPN
Chicago Bulls At LA Lakers
Sun. 10pm ESPN
Money-Back Special
If the last score in any of these games is a 3-pointer Paddy Power will refund all losing match handicap bets on that match.
Conditions
William Hill S P L Weekend Specials
December 18, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Weekend SPL Specials
How many Goals will be Scored in the SPL on Saturday?
Over 15.5 8/11
Under 15.5 Evs
Which match will produce the most goals?
Celtic v Hearts 11/4
Hibernian v Rangers 3/1
Dunfermline v Kilmarnock 9/2
Inverness v Dundee Utd 9/2
Aberdeen v St Mirren 11/2
St Johnstone v Motherwell 13/2
Which side will score the Quickest Goal?
Celtic 3/1
Rangers 4/1
Kilmarnock 6/1
Aberdeen 7/1
St Johnstone 8/1
Dundee Utd 10/1
Inverness 10/1
Motherwell 14/1
Dunfermline 16/1
Hearts 20/1
Hibernian 20/1
St Mirren 20/1
Aberdeen dropped to the foot of the table last weekend
can they climb off the bottom after a week?
Who will be bottom of the SPL on Saturday Evening?
Aberdeen 7/4
Dunfermline 15/8
Hibernian 2/1
Inverness 14/1
All matches must take place or markets above are void.
Match Specials
HIBERNIAN V RANGERS
The last 6 meetings between these sides have only seen one team score.
No for Both Teams to Score 8/13
Pat Fenlon saw his debut as Hibs boss cut short when the floodlights
failed at Fir Park, Hibs were 1-0 ahead due to Garry O’Connors
first goal since September.
Garry O’Connor to Score Anytime 11/4
Rangers have not scored a goal from open play for 341 minutes
The only goals scored since Jelavics 19 min strike against Dundee Utd
have been penalties and Own Goals.
Rangers to Score from anything other than
a Penalty, Direct Free Kick or Own Goal 1/4
Hibernian to Keep a Clean Sheet 9/2
There have been two own goals scored in Rangers’
last 4 matches.
An Own Goal Scored in the Match 10/1
Jelavic has scored 3 penalties in Rangers’ last 5 matches
Jelavic to Score a Penalty 9/2
Rangers have only won two of their last 8 matches by
more than a single goal
Hibernian +2 Handicap 4/7
ABERDEEN V ST MIRREN
Four of the last six meetings between the sides has
been goalless at Half Time
Half Time Result to be 0-0 7/4
When Scott Vernon scores v St Mirren, Aberdeen win
He scored in both the Dons victories last season
Scott Vernon to Score and Aberdeen to Win 11/5
St Mirren haven’t scored in the Second Half of a match
since their 1-1 draw at Ibrox in October. (8 games ago)
St Mirren to Score NO Second Half Goals 8/13
CELTIC v HEARTS
The last five meetings between these sides have
seen only one team score
No for Both teams to score 4/6
James Forrest has opened the scoring in the last two
meetings at Celtic Park
James Forrest to Score First and Celtic to Win 6/1
Paddy McCourt has netted in the last two matches
against Hearts at home
McCourt to Score Anytime 2/1
Celtic have scored at least 3 goals in three of their
last five matches against Hearts
Celtic to Score 3 or more goals 6/4
Hearts have kept a Clean Sheet in two of their last
four meetings with Celtic. Both were at home but is now
the time for them to shut up shop on the road?
Hearts to keep a Clean Sheet 11/2
DUNFERMLINE v KILMARNOCK
Goals Goals Goals
Three of the last four meetings between these sides
have produced at least 5 goals.
Over 4.5 Goals in Match 11/2
In their last home match Dunfermline fought back
from going behind to rescue a point
Dunfermline to Come from Behind and win or draw 9/2
Apart from the Inverness match when Killie leaked 6 goals
their defence has been pretty solid, having 5 clean sheets
in their last 7 matches
Kilmarnock to keep a Clean Sheet 9/5
INVERNESS v DUNDEE UTD
The last five meetings between these sides in Inverness
has seen all 12 goals scored in the Second Half.
Second Half to be the highest Scoring Half 19/20
With five goals in his last five matches Andrew Shinnie
is the form player for the Highlanders.
Andrew Shinnie to Score Anytime 9/4
Inverness have failed to win 3 of their last 5 matches after
taking a lead.
Dundee Utd to come from behind and win or draw 4/1
ST JOHNSTONE v MOTHERWELL
The last two matches between these sides have finished 3-0.
One win for each side.
Any side to win 3-0 12/1
Dave Mackay has netted in his last two games. Will he make
it 3 in a row against Motherwell
Dave Mackay to Score Anytime 6/1
Motherwell save their best form for when they are away
from home. They have only lost one of their eight games
Motherwell Draw No Bet 21/20
Follow The Flag To The Payout Counter
December 10, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Our usual Saturday installment from Guy at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
Can he make it three profitable Saturday’s in a row?
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Weather affected day and It’s Southwell that has
the most coverage as the only card that was safe.
I’m surprised an 11f handicap produces my best bet but
the 2.55pm may be best left to FOLLOW THE FLAG
a horse I have being saying for a while was well treated
and looking at his last run I think he needs this distance.
Decided against putting him up as a bet because I know
my angles in 11f handicaps are awkward and messy and
there is every chance a non runner killed my each way
options. I do see FOLLOW THE FLAG as my best bet.
S o u t h w e l l 2.55
7/2 Royal Swain, 7/2 Stanley Rigby, 9/2 Sail Home
6/1 Ostentation, 6/1 Rajamand, 10/1 Follow The Flag
10/1 Hits Only Jude, 12/1 Magic Echo.
This is an 11f Handicap for 0-75 rated horses. This is a
nightmare distance to sort out statistically as I have said
countless times before. I have few 11f races to work with
but I ran all these horses through some statistical tests to get a shortlist.
The horses with long absences struggled a bit and fell short.
So did the horses that were well beaten over 12f last time.
There are stamina doubts to consider with horses like HITS ONLY JUDE.
In the end I felt the most promising profiles were both FOLLOW THE FLAG
and SAIL HOME and whilst neither looked brilliant I can at least find a winner
like both which is a reasonable start. I have flagged up FOLLOW THE FLAG 4
times recently as well handicapped and he may well be able to win over this distance.
He appeals most with Sail Home the horse I fear the most. I could have SAIL HOME
as the saver in the race but I’d rather bet FOLLOW THE FLAG E/W as
I think he looked like he was crying out for a slower and
longer surface last time at Lingfield. He only just coped
with a faster track at a Mile but stayed on very well late
in the race and I think he could well take this race today.
Selection
FOLLOW THE FLAG 11/2 Ladbrokes – Sporting Bet Each Way
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Hennessy Gold Cup Racing Tip
November 26, 2011 By Leave a Comment
A free racing tip today for you on The Hennessy Gold Cup from Guy at The Mathematician Site. To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips
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N e w b u r y 3.10
PLANET OF SOUND 12/1
Each Way
Hennessy Gold Cup N e w b u r y 3.10
A Fascinating race and I have shortlisted 4 horses.
I like Wymott and Wayward Prince. It would not
surprise me to see Beshabar won as well. Its really
a race where most horses have a good narative so
it’s down to which is the most convincing. I think
the most persuasive was PLANET OF SOUND. I am
having 75% of my stake to win 25% to place.
5/1 Aiteen Thirtythree, 6/1 Great Endeavour
13/2 Wymott, 7/1 Michel Le Bon, 8/1 Wayward Prince
12/1 Beshabar, 12/1 Planet Of Sound, 14/1 Sarando
16/1 The Giant Bolster, 20/1 Carruthers, 20/1 Muirhead
25/1 Neptune Collonges, 25/1 Tullamore Dew
33/1 Billie Magern, 40/1 Blazing Bailey, 40/1 Fair Along
40/1 Qhilimar, 50/1 Balthazar King.
* The Hennessy is a Handicap Chase over 3m2f110y
* There are 19 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-18 career starts dominate the hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 19 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-47 in this race
* The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is therefore opposed
* He is a 10yo seasonal debutant hard to like
* BLAZING BAILEY is not the right type
* BALTHAZAR KING is there to make up the numbers
* QHILIMAR is the wrong type to win a Hennessy
* FAIR ALONG has not had the right preparation
* BILLIE MAGERN looks hard to fancy
* He doesnt like big fields and is not progressing
* THE GIANT BOLSTER has jumping concerns
* He has failed to complete in his last 3 Chases
* He has only jumped 8 fences in these 3 races
* He carries too much risk with his jumping
* SARANDO is 6 and has run this year
* His profile is fine I just wonder if he has the class
* He has only got Grade 2 form
* He started 50/1 in that Class of race as well
* There isnt a strong statistical argument against him
* I just think there may be clasier horses
* Some of them have lighter weights than him
* TULLAMORE DEW fell last time
* Not the ideal preparation and he isnt for me
* You have to bank on him improving a lot
* The trip may bring that out but its not certain
* He was Novice Handicapping at the last Cheltenham
* He has a lot to prove in terms of class
* MUIRHEAD has been summer jumping in Ireland
* Thats not the profile of a Hennessy winner
* He is more exposed than almost all past winners
* He has been busier this season than any of them
* MUIRHEAD just looks too untypical to me
* CARRUTHERS was beaten 20 lengths in this last year
* He had a good profile then but still failed
* He likes a small field and wont get that here
* He has already had more chase runs than is ideal
* He is too riSky in a big field handicap like this
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE has 1 run this year
* All winners doing that came from a Handicap
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE does not do that
* Horses that come from Non handicaps like him were 0-25
* He also comes from a 2m 5f race
* Only 1 winner had 1 run this year from 21f or shorter
* That was One Man who had less weight and was younger
* I wasn’t impressed with his profile
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE doesnt offer enough
* MICHEL LE BON has not run in 730 days
* No past winner had anything like that absence
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* MICHEL LE BON hasnt even got that
* His biggest problem is having just 1 Chase start
* Last years winner only had 3 and he was inexperienced
* Surely he shouldn’t be able to win with 1 chase start
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR won the Paddy Power last time
* Personally I don’t like that as a trial race
* There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
* The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
* The previous winner of that race was in 1980
* That said it has been done so I will overlook that
* When Celestial Gold won he had less weight
* Celestial Gold was less exposed as well
* Celestial Gold also had more backclass as well
* This is GREAT ENDEAVOUR’s 7th Handicap Chase
* He is now 22lbs higher than when winning the first
* Thats a worry especially with no Grade 1-2 form
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1-2 form
* Only 1 past winner won when as well raced as him
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR doesn’t feel completely safe
* He meets horses with more backclass yet more scope
S h o r t l i s t
* BESHABAR is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* BESHABAR wont find it easy trying to repeat that
* He does have a lot less weight to carry than Denman
* His Chasing profile is more than adequate
* In his favour is low mileage
* His Scottish National win was impressive
* He only had 4 chase runs before that
* He has only been raised 4lbs in the weights
* I think thats generous and he could go well
* BESHABAR would be a Positive
* I could have taken a chance with him
* My only reservations is will he need the run ?
* WAYWARD PRINCE comes out very well
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WAYWARD PRINCE fits that nicely with 10 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WAYWARD PRINCE matches that with 5 Chase runs
* There is one difference with his profile
* No winners came from a Novice race last year
* I’d ignore that as he had Grade 1 form before that
* Few Hennessy winners have headgear
* WAYWARD PRINCE is certainly shortlistable
* WYMOTT pulled up in the Sun Alliance last March
* So did last years winner of this race so it doesnt matter
* He was diagnosed with a small crack in a bone
* WYMOTT has a very encouraging profile
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WYMOTT fits that nicely with 11 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WYMOTT again matches that with 4 Chase runs
* I think he has a good profile
S e l e c t i o n
* PLANET OF SOUND is a 9yo
* He is the second best horse in the weights
* I think he can outclass these horses
* We had a 9yo seasonal debutant win in 2009
* This horse has got speed and class
* Enough Speed to Place in the 2m Arkle in 2009
* Enough Class to win a Grade 1 over 3m 1f
* Clearly he likes good to fast ground
* He has a good record when fresh
* I think he is best on Galloping tracks with long run ins
* His dislikes Sharp Tracks like Aintree and Haydock
* His wins come at Exeter Punchestown Chepstow Newbury
* His record at Newbury is 2 W W W
* PLANET OF SOUND has fallen once in 12 chase runs
* That was in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase in Feb 2010
* He then flopped at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival
* He wasnt fit that day and had a horrible preparation
* He also showed signs of having a breathing problem
* He then won the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup
* That was a Grade 1 race and he beat a high class field
* War of Attrition – Cooldine – Denman all behind him
* His next run was his seasonal debut in 2010-2011
* No shame in coming 3rd in a Grade 1
* He didnt like the ground or the track
* The Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander beat him
* There was no shame in that run
* His last run 10 months ago he flopped in the King George
* He Choked that day but has since had an operation
* This could be the time to catch him
* His best track and his Handicap debut
* He has to prove he stays but I think he will
* He wasnt stopping over 3m 1f in Ireland
* I believe he is the Class horse today with a chance
* The second season Chasers are not strong this year
* PLANET OF SOUND has to be worth a bet
12 /1 at Bet365 who pay 5 places
Also 12/1 at BoyleSports – S James – Ladbrokes – VC
latest odds available at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-11-26/newbury/15-10/betting/
NB Betfred have an offer on this race that may interest some of you.
If your horses finishes 2nd to the SP favourite you get your win stake back
See Hennessy Offer
It is also a Bet365 4/1 + offer race ( free bet on next channel 4 race if your bet wins at 4/1 or over )
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Bounty From The Bookies Today?
November 12, 2011 By Leave a Comment
The below is from The Mathematician Site.
Just part of a much larger message from him today.
Fingers crossed for another decent priced winner from him again today.
To visit his site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips
Lingfield 3.55
Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I’m not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn’t yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don’t know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don’t
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.
10/1 at Betfred – Ladbrokes – Coral – Stan James
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