Football Matches – Bore War!

Argentina v Germany – 3pm BBC1 & RTE2
If this match finishes 0-0, we’ll refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles on the match. Conditions

Our Necks On The Line

2.35 Sandown
If your horse finishes second beaten by upto and including a neck in this race, Paddy Power will refund your losing single stake. Conditions

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

Haydock Free Horse Racing Tip

In Yesterday’s main member message I didn’t suggest a stand out bet and decided to let the message stand or fall on the previews.
The mail had 10 previews and we came back with 5 winners
including a 16/1 winner and plenty of places as well.
It shows I am reading things well at the moment and have
the right level of confidence and momentum.

A ridiculous ammount of racing today. The main message for full members
has comments in 20 seperate races today so plenty to read.
Some are full detailed previews and others
just notes and little more.

Here on the free blog I am posting up one of the races covered.

Join the full service at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
and you can read the other races covered in our full member area.
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HAYDOCK 2.50

Bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)1m3f200y

9/2 Barshiba, 11/2 Polly´s Mark, 13/2 Grace O´malley
7/1 Les Fazzani,  8/1 Lady Jane Digby 9/1 Tinaar
10/1 Rosika, 14/1 Champagnelifestyle 25/1 Cassique Lady
25/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, 40/1 Najam.

* The Lancashire Oaks has 19 renewals since 1991
* This is a Group race over 11.5f for fillies
* The race may have changed since 2004
* Before then horses with 9 or more starts were 0-21
* Since 2004 we have had 3 winners with 9 or more runs
* I dont mind these horses as long as they match previous winners
*  NAJAM  won a 3yo maiden last time out like 4 past winners
* None however had 4 + runs like her
* None like her had 2 + runs that season
* NAJAM took 4 runs to win a maiden and thats not good enough
* TINAAR has just been beaten in a Hamilton Handicap
* None of the last 19 winners came from Handicaps
* TINAAR has never been in Listed or Group Class before
* Only 3 past winners could say that and all had under 4 runs
* TINAAR has 9 and may well lack the class
* No 4 year old won this with just 1 run this season
* The 2007 winner did officially but had 3 Hurdle races as well
* I think 1 run this year will leave a 4yo short
* ROSIKA fails that and has no form in Group class
* I dont fancy her winning this with just 1 run
* FLAME OF GIBRALTAR is rejected for similar reasons
* She is also a 4yo with 1 run this year
* She was well beaten last time as well
* There were only 2 winners aged 5 or more
* Both ran within a month and had 2-3 runs this season
* CLOWANCE is 5 and has just 1 run this season
* She also has a 77 day absence to overcome
* That would trouble me that no similar horse won
* Both winning horses aged 5 or more had Grade 1 form
* CASSIQUE LADY is 5 and does not have that
* They both came from higher class races than she does
* CASSIQUE LADY looks a grade below what is required
* BARSHIBA won this last year as a 5 year old
* She is now 6 and no past winner was that age
* Last year she was beaten 7 lengths at Ascot with 3 prep runs
* This year she was beaten 9 lengths at Ascot with 2 prep runs
* Not convinced that will be enough for her
* Only 2 past winners came From Royal Ascot
* Both had 3 + runs that season
* Thats my only concern alongside her age
* I am not shortlisting her because of that
* LADY JANE DIGBY doesnt interest me
* There were 5 winners that came from 10f or shorter
* They were all 3 year olds and lightly raced
* LADY JANE DIGBY is exposed and aged 5 doing that
* Because of that I feel she is the wrong type
* LES FAZZANI is 6 older than all past winners since 2001
* With 23 runs he is the joint most exposed runner
* You can argue all her turf wins came on soft ground
* If the ground was not fast I would respect her
* She is still older than any past winner though
* Because of that I dont want to select her

SHORTLIST

POLLYS MARK
GRACE O´MALLEY
CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE

* CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE is 3 and comes from the Oaks
* Horses doing that with 2 runs this season like here were 2-5
* They both had 3 career starts and she has 4 runs
* Thats the only thing different from her profile
* She was backed for this last Wednesday
* I think she has a reasonably good chance of a surprise
* POLLYS MARK is 4 and has had 13 career starts
* Horses aged 4 won 6 races but only 1 had 9 or more starts
* The record of 4 year olds with 9 + runs is 1-26 (Pongee 2004)
* However that 4yo winner (Pongee) had 2 runs that year like her
* She also came from the same race the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock
* That puts POLLYS MARK firmly in the picture
* She didnt win at Haydock unlike the 2004 winner
* She was beaten in a photo and thats good enough for me
* You would like the stable in better form though
* GRACE O´MALLEY is a Positive
* Hard to read and from Ireland but no obvious flaws
* In form and thriving now she is in foal

SELECTION

GRACE O´MALLEY 6/1 Each Way

If the 3 year old (Champagnelifestyle) pops up I wont
be surprised but I have 3 on the shortlist and can not go
with all of them. I am going with GRACE O´MALLEY
because she is in Foal and has already won recently when
in Foal and hopefully she can carry that forward to win.

GRACE O´MALLEY 7/1 Each Way

(Polly’s Mark an optional Saver)

NB 7/1 was available earlier when this was given to full members

now best priced 13/2 at VC Stan James Tote

LAST TIME OUT WINNERS TO AVOID

A few pointers for Saturday’s horse racing from Dave over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Dave bases this info on his research of many years historic racing.

Strong Hint: The last time out winners to avoid have been pretty arrurate in the past providing good returns for layers.

My own logic would say that a horse that won last time out tends to get a lot of unthinking support just because it won last time. Many mug punters will blindly back it for that reason alone ignoring factors such as has it been upped in class or is it running on suitable ground or distance.

The last time out winners to avoid below are gleaned by Dave’s examination into such horses. He has identified several key factors that indicate when a LTO winner is SIGNIFICANTLY NOT a good bet.

In technical betting terms the rough overall logic in laying these is that the one the face of it attractive win last time out is widely reported and noted by punters all across the land. This often causes some over betting of such horses. You can get a bit of long term value by selectively opposing them.

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Saturday 3rd July

BEST RACES FOR FAVOURITES

1.55, 3.35, 4.45 Leicester

2.35 Sandown

5.35 Beverley

6.40 Nottingham

7.25, 8.55 Carlisle

LAST TIME OUT WINNERS TO AVOIDthese LTO have poor stats and are unlikely to follow up their recent win

3.25    Haydock – Hillview Boy

4.10    Leicester – Indian Skipper

4.50    Sandown – Mass Rally

5.20    Leicester – Bidable

6. 55   Carlisle – Feeling Fresh

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

Saturday 3rd July

 BEST RACES FOR FAVOURITES

1.55, 3.35, 4.45 Leicester

2.35 Sandown

5.35 Beverley

6.40 Nottingham

7.25, 8.55 Carlisle

 LAST TIME OUT WINNERS TO AVOIDthese LTO have poor stats and are unlikely to follow up their recent win

3.25    Haydock – Hillview Boy

4.10    Leicester – Indian Skipper

4.50    Sandown – Mass Rally

5.20    Leicester – Bidable

6. 55   Carlisle – Feeling Fresh

TRAINERS IN FORM  (engagements today in breackets)

Mrs L Williamson (Nott 7.10)

R Charlton (Hayd 2.50, Hayd 4.00, Hayd 4.35, Hayd 5.10, Hayd 5.45, Nott 8.40)

M A Jarvis (Hayd 3.25, Leic 3.35, Leic 4.10, Sand 3.10, Sand 3.40, Sand 4.15, Sand 4.50)

R M Beckett (Hayd 2.15, Leic 3.35, Nott 7.10, Nott 8.40)

J L Dunlop (Hayd 2.15, Hayd 3.25)

L M Cumani (Hayd 3.25, Sand 2.35, Sand 4.15, Sand 5.25)

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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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Curbs Odds-on For Fulham – Liverpool 2010/11 Odds

CURBS ODDS ON FOR FULHAM
William Hill have opened a book on who will succeed Roy Hodgson as permanent Fulham boss and make Alan Curbishley odds on favourite. ‘This would appear to be an ideal opportunity for ‘Curbs’ to get back into management’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe. ‘However, Hodgson’s success at Craven Cottage could have made the job attractive to a higher echelon of managers than may previously have been the case.’
William Hill…NEXT FULHAM BOSS
Alan Curbishley8/11
Mark Hughes4/1
Sven Goran Eriksson5/1
Sean O’Driscoll8/1
Glenn Hoddle8/1
Slaven Bilic10/1
Manuel Pelligrini10/1
Gareth Southgate12/1
Tony Mowbray14/1
Dave Jones16/1
Paulo Sousa16/1
Marcelo Lippi16/1
Kevin Keegan20/1
Steve McLaren20/1
Phil Scolari20/1
Stuart Pearce20/1
Martin Jol20/1
Iain Dowie20/1
Phil Brown20/1
Paul Jewell25/1
Paul Ince33/1
Gerard Houllier33/1
Paul Le Guen33/1
Chris Coleman50/1

Hills…Where Will Liverpool Finish?

Winner12/1
Runner Up8/1
3rd Or 4th11/4
5th Or 6th7/4
7th Or 8th3/1
9th or Lower6/1

Torres To Leave Before End Of Transfer Window
Yes11/8
No8/15

Gerrard To Leave Before End Of Transfer Window
Yes11/4
No1/4

How Many Major Trophies Will Liverpool Win This Season?
01/7
111/4
212/1
3100/1
41000/1

Liverpool to beat last years total of 63 points
Yes4/7
No5/4

William Hill WORLD CUP SPECIALS…
Total Goals In Remaining World Cup Games
Under 187/4
18-2213/8
Over 2213/8
How Many Of Last 8 Games Will Go To Penalties
013/8
15/2
27/2
39/2
48/1
5+16/1
How Many Red Cards In Remaining 8 Games
None6/1
13/1
215/8
39/4
4+5/1

Further information……graham sharpe…0780 3233702

Villa Espana !

YOU BET SPAIN MARCH ON

SPAIN are now quoted as 11/4 second favourites to win the World Cup by William Hill after defeating bitter rivals Portugal.They are now 2/9 to eliminate Paraguay who are 3/1 to knock Spain out. ‘We feared Spain pre-tournament when they became favourites but they had flattered a little to deceive only now to become major contenders again’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Hills make Brazil 5/2 favourites and also offer 9/2 Argentina; 13/2 Germany; 7 Holland; 16 Uruguay; 40 Ghana; 50 Paraguay.

David Villa is 7/4 favourite to be the tournament’s top scorer with Hills who also offer 5/2 Higuain; 4 Fabiano; 14 Suarez; 20 Van Persie; Muller; 25 Forlan; Tevez.

William Hill…FINALISTS…3/1 Spain-Brazil; 7/2 Arg-Brazil; 13/2 ger-Brazil; 7 Spain-Holland; 15/2 Arg- Holl; 10 Germany-Holland.

SPAIN are 1/2 to beat Paraguay in 90m with Hills who offer 12/5 draw; 5/1 Paraguay.

WHISTLER WEBB COSTLIER THAN ROONEY FOR BOOKIES!

HOWARD WEBB has been backed from 2/1 to 5/4 favourite with William Hill to officiate at the World Cup Final. ‘If Webb gets the job he’ll have cost us the most money at this tournament than Wayne Rooney – you’d probably have got a three figure price about that pre-tournament!’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Hills also offer:
Frank De Bleekere – 7/2
Ravshan Irmatov – 10/1
Massimo Busacca – 12/1
Wolfgang Stark – 12/1
Benito Archundia – 16/1
Victor Kassai – 25/1

Further information….graham sharpe…..0780 3233702

Capello – Out Odds Shorten

CAPELLO-OUT ODDS SHORTEN

William Hill offer 5/4 that Fabio Capello will have left his job before England meet Hungary in their next game on August 11 – and 4/7 that he will still be in charge for the game.
CAPELLO is also down from 11/10 to Even money with William Hill to have left the job of England manager by the end of 2010.’95% of the bets we are taking are for Fabio to go and to go quickly’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Hills- WHEN WILL FABIO GO?….5/4 Before Hungary game. (Aug 11)….Evens by end of year….6/1 2011;…7/4 2012;…11/1 2013……7/1 2014…..14/1 2015+

Hills make Harry Redknapp 7/4 favourite to succeed Capello on a permanent basis and also offer:
Roy Hodgson..7/2
Stuart Pearce..7/1
Martin O’Neill..10/1
Jose Mourinho..12/1
Sam Allardyce …12/1
Arsene Wenger…14/1
David Beckham..16/1
Steve Bruce.. 16/1
Mark Hughes…16/1
Guus Hiddink..20/1
Alan Shearer…25/1

NEXT ENGLAND PERMANENT BOSS TO BE ENGLISH? – 1/3 YES….9/4 NO

VIDEO TECHNOLOGY ODDS SHORTEN AGAIN

William Hill have cut their odds about the introduction of goalline video technology by FIFA in time for the 2014 World Cup from 3/1TO 5/2 after Sepp Blatter of FIFA said that the matter would be re-considered. ‘Mr Blatter’s remarks may have been given undue weight as he has not given the slightest encouragement to those who want to see video technology introduced and last time it was considered by FIFA it was firmly rejected.’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

WORLD WIDE WEBB?

William Hill make English ref Howard Webb 2/1 favourite to win the right to handle the World Cup Final. ‘We have always reckoned he’d have a good chance of the Final – we opened up at 6/1 – and with England out his chances have only increased’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Hills…TO REF FINAL…
World Cup Final Referee

2/1 Howard Webb

11/4 Massimo Busacca

6/1 Wolfgang Stark

8/1 Frank De Bleekere

10/1 Ravshan Irmatov

14/1 Viktor Kassai

20/1 Benito Archundia

Further information…..graham sharpe….0208 918 3731

Webb Favourite To Ref World Cup Final

HOWARD WEBB 2/1 FAV FOR WORLD CUP FINAL

William Hill make English ref Howard Webb 2/1 favourite to win the right to handle the World Cup Final. ‘We have always reckoned he’d have a good chance of the Final – we opened up at 6/1 – and with England out his chances have only increased’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Shar[e.

Hills…TO REF FINAL…2/1 Webb; 11/4 Busacca; 6/1 Stark; 8/1 De Bleekere; 10/1 Irmatov; 14 Kassai; 20 Archundia. Others on request.

PUNTERS HIT BACK AT BOOKIES

Punters enjoyed their best results of the World Cup as Argentina, Holland and Brazil served up a 29/10 win for the thousands of gamblers who backed all three in a win treble.
‘We were desperate for one of these three to fail to win but it was not to be and Monday has been the best day yet for World Cup punters’ said William Hill‘s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

BRAZIL NOW 12/5 FAVS

William Hill make Brazil 12/5 – the shortest odds they have yet been quoted at – to win the World Cup after they swept Chile aside.
Hills also offer- 4/1 Argentina; 9/2 Spain; 7/1 Germany and Holland; 14 Uruguay; 20 Portugal; 33 Ghana; 40 Paraguay; 80 Japan.
‘Brazil are beginning to dominate the betting on who will emerge as World Cup winners’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Hills…12/5 Holland; 2/1 draw; Evens Brazil. To go through…13/8 Holland; 4/9 Brazil.

TO CONTEST FINAL….7/2 Arg-Braz; 9/2 Spain-Brazil; 6 Germ-Braz; 15/2 Arg-Holl; 10 Spain-Holl; 11 Arg-Urugu. Others on request.

TO BE W CUP TOP SCORER…..9/4 Higuain; 11/4 Villa; 7/2 Fabiano; 12 Suarez; 20 Klose ; V Persie; A Gyan; Forlan; Tevez; Muller,

Further information…graham sharpe…0780 3233702