Bolton v Man Utd
Sat. 5.30pm ESPN
Money-Back Special
If the last goal in this match is a header Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match. Conditions
Money-Back Special – Crowning Glory
March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Money-Back Special – We’re Your Favourite
March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment
2.00 Doncaster
Money-Back Special
If your horse finishes second to the SP favourite in this race, Paddy Power will refund your losing win single stake.
Conditions
Saturday Soccer Betting
March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Saturday Soccer Betting
A few football bets for you today from Phil over at the Football Bets site
Phil used to work in a bookmakers and in fact turned down work as an football odds compiler to focus on his own betting.
He is one of several expert soccer advisors over at the football bets website.
I can’t promise success today with these bets but following his advice is a shrewd move long term as he has a very good record for strike rate and profitability.
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Morning Guys 2 singles and a mixed treble for today
Which all look decent value.
Birmingham v Arsenal
OVER 35 booking points at evens extrabet 1pt
Celtic to win with a clean sheet v Kilmarnock at 10/11 BoyleSports 1pt
Mixed Treble
Arsenal to get most corners v Birmingham
Chelsea to get most corners v Aston Villa
Shrewsbury to beat Darlington
This bet pays 21/20 at williamhill have 1pt on it
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Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics
March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham
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Dave offers a useful free guide to horse racing.
To get yours click here ==> Horse Racing Course
——————————————————-
In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.
2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: Second, third and fourth favourites have provided 6 winners and backing all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £12.50 (ROI +25%). |
| Course LTO:
9 of the 15 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. They have provided |
| Age: 4yos have won 10 of the last 15 renewals. (67% of winners from 44% of the total runners). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 1 win from 15 for a loss of £7.00 (ROI -46.7%). |
| Price: All runners priced 11/2 or shorter have been beaten (12 in total). |
| Price: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 122 qualifiers for a loss of £88.00 (ROI -72.1%). |
| Distance LTO: Horses that ran over 1m1f or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 78 qualifiers. |
| Class LTO: 67 horses raced in the same class or higher LTO and all have lost. |
| Course LTO: Horses that ran on the all weather LTO have provided just 3 winners from 155 runners for a loss of £108.00 (ROI -69.7%). |
| Age: Horses 7yos and older have provided 0 winners from 55. |
GENERAL STATS
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 10th or worse LTO have won 7 of the races. |
| Sex of horse: Female runners have a fair record with 3 wins from 31 for a profit of £22.00 (ROI +71%). |
| Trends analysis: In general I would look to use the negative trends first to help narrow this big field down. Firstly ignore 7 year olds and older, then ignore and horses dropping in trip. All 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO and there should be preference for horses that ran at a Grade 1 track LTO. Also LTO form does not really seem to matter as nearly half the winners have won after finishing 10th or worse LTO. |
2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: 7 of the last 15 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 11/1. Backing all runners in this price bracket would have produced a profit of £14.50 (ROI +26.9%). |
| LTO class: Horses that raced in Listed class LTO have provided 8 of the last 15 winners. |
| Days since last run: 14 of the last 15 winners were having their first run of the year in the UK. |
| Running style: In recent years horses that have raced up with or close to the pace have had a clear advantage providing 8 of the last 11 winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| LTO class: Horses that raced in class 3 company or lower LTO have provided 0 winners from 25 runners. |
| LTO race type: Horses that raced in an all age handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner from 65 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -76.9%). |
| LTO course:
Horses that raced on the all weather LTO have provided just 1 winner |
| Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers / visors have provided 0 winners from 24. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 17 for a loss of £2.75 (ROI -16.2%). |
| Age: 3yos have won 1 race from 9 (SR 11.1%); 4yos have won 4 races from 59 (SR 6.8%); 5yos have won 4 races from 31 (SR 12.9%); 6yos have won 3 races from 28 (SR 10.7%); 7yos have won 2 races from 23 (SR 8.7%); 8yos+ have won 1 from 26 (SR 3.8%). |
| Sex of horse: Male runners have won 13 races from 143 (SR 9.1%); female runners have won 2 races from 33 (SR 6.1%). |
| Trends analysis: This is a race that traditionally favours seasonal debutants rather than horses that have raced recently on the all weather. The best value has been in the 6/1 to 11/1 price bracket. Prominent racers have a good recent record, while horses that raced in Listed class LTO have been the most successful. Avoid horses that raced in an all age handicap LTO and/or and any horse wearing blinkers or a visor. Also horses that raced in class 3 or lower LTO look best ignored. |
3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the betting. (15.4 runners per race is the 15-year average). |
| Price: 14 of the last 15 winners have been priced 14/1 or lower. |
| Draw: In big fields high draws have had the advantage in recent years with four of the seven 17 runner plus races since 1998 going to one of the top three stalls. Indeed, 2 years ago the first five runners home were drawn 19, 14, 13, 18 and 20 (19 ran; 2 non runners). Last year the first six horses home in a 19 runners race were drawn 11 or higher. |
| Running style: The last 15 winners have raced close to or up with the pace. |
| Trainers: Bill Turner has saddled 4 winners and 4 placed horses from 15. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 20 for a loss of £10.25 (ROI -51.3%). |
| Market position: Horses 10th or bigger in the betting market have provided 1 win from 89 runners for a loss of £63.00 (ROI -70.8%). |
| Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 110 runners for a loss of £84.00 (ROI -76.4%). |
| Training centre: Newmarket trainers have provided just 1 winners from 23 for a loss of £19.75 (ROI -85.9%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Sex of horse: Male runners have won 12 races from 170 (SR 4.9%); female runners have won 3 races from 61 (SR 4.9%). |
| Foaling date: January and February foals have won 5 races from 79 (SR 6.3%); March foals have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); April and May foals have won 4 from 82 (SR 4.9%). |
| Trends analysis: With this being such an early 2yo race one would expect trends to be thin on the ground, but there are several useful pointers to this contest. Traditionally it is best to focus on horses priced 14/1 or shorter, although it should be noted that favourites have struggled. Racing close to the pace has been vital and this has become more important as the fields have increased, so ‘in running’ players take note! A trainer to note is Bill Turner whose record is very impressive. Finally, in big fields a high draw has been an advantage. |
Stratford Horse Racing Tip
March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment
STRATFORD 3.00
Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+) 2m6f110y
4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.
* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races
Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.
* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically
He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race
Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet
Guy Ward
To visit Guys site click here ==> free horse racing tips
Setback For Villa
March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment
SETBACK FOR VILLA
ASTON VILLA have been lengthened from 7/2 to 6/1 by William Hill to finish 4th in the Premier League. Hills make Man City 7/4 favourites, with Liverpool and Spurs both offered at 9/4 and Everton 40/1. ‘A home draw against Wolves is not Champions League form and Villa seem to be struggling to maintain the pace in this marathon race for fourth’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Further information…..graham sharpe…..0780 3233702
United Versus Liverpool Specials
March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment
William Hill: MAN U – LIVERPOOL SPECIALS
Sending off?
Yes 5/2
No 2/7
Penalty awarded?
Yes 12/5
No 3/10
Rooney to score?
Yes 5/6
No 5/6
Rooney to score a header?
Yes 7/2
No 1/6
Rafa sent off?
33/1
Fergie sent off?
33/1
Man Utd clean sheet?
Yes 11/10
No 4/6
Liverpool clean sheet?
Yes 7/2
No 1/6
Vidic sent off?
14/1
Rooney v Torres goals match bet
Rooney 15/8
Tie 8/11
Torres 4/1
Europa League + Scottish Specials
March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment
LIVERPOOL 27/2 TO WIN EUROPA LEAGUE AND FINISH FOURTH
LIVERPOOL have been made 7/2 favourites to win the Europa League following the Quarter Final draw by William Hill – who also make them 27/2 to couple that with finishing 4th in the Premiership. ‘Rafa would claim the season as a success if they could manage that double – but we still offer 5/6 that he’ll be gone by the start of next season, 5/6 that he’ll still be in place’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Hills are offering 8/1 that the Europa League Final will be between Liverpool and Fulham – a 66/1 shot before they both made it through.
Hills :TO WIN EUROPA LEAGUE…7/2 Liverpool; 4 Hamburg; 9/2 Valencia; 11/2 Benfica; 13/2 Wolfsburg; 8 Atl Madrid; 10 Fulham; 16 Standard Liege.
TO GO THROUGH….8/15 Liverpool; 11/8 Benfica;……….Evens Fulham; 8/11 Wolfsburg.
TO MEET IN FINAL…….8/1 Liverpool – Fulham.
RAFA TO BE AT LIVERPOOL FIRST DAY OF NEXT SEASON – 5/6 Yes; 5/6 no.
SCOTTISH WEEKEND SPECIALS…….
Co-operative Insurance Cup final
To Win the Cup Outright
Rangers 1/6
St Mirren 7/2
90 Minutes Odds
Rangers 1/4
Draw 7/2
St Mirren 9/1
Method of Victory
Rangers to win in Extra Time 15/2
Rangers to Win on Penalties 12/1
St Mirren to win in Extra Time 40/1
St Mirren to win on Penalties 18/1
Match to go to Penalties 15/2
Handicap Betting
Rangers (-1) 8/11
Tie 14/5
St Mirren (+1) 5/2
The last time these clubs met at Hampden Rangers won 3-0
in last seasons Scottish Cup Semi Final.
Rangers to win 3-0 13/2
Kris Boyd and Kenny Miller both scored in that match
Kris Boyd and Kenny Miller to score at anytime 21/10
The last time St Mirren won a trophy Ian Ferguson scored
the only goal of the match, less than a year later he was
a Rangers player.
A St Mirren player to score in Final and sign for Rangers
before 1/1/11 11/1
Kris Boyd has scored more goals against St Mirren this
season than St Mirren have v Rangers.
Who will Score the most goals
Kris Boyd 6/5
Tie 2/1
St Mirren 2/1
Kris Boyd has yet to score in this seasons competition
Kris Boyd to score 4/7
Kris Boyd to score first 5/2
Kris Boyd to score 2 or more 11/4
Kris Boyd to score a hatrick 12/1
Kris Boyd to score first and Rangers to win 3/1
Kris Boyd to score at anytime and Rangers to win 3/4
Billy Mehmet scored a superb goal against Hearts
to send the Saints to the final.
Billy Mehmet is also the joint top St Mirren scorer in this
competition with Michael Higdon
Billy Mehmet to score 4/1
Billy Mehmet to score first 11/1
Billy Mehmet to score 2 or more 25/1
Billy Mehmet to score at anytime and St Mirren to win 14/1
Billy Mehmet to score first and St Mirren to win 33/1
Billy Mehmet OR Michael Higdon to Score First 11/2
Rangers to Win Co-operative Insurance Cup and SPL 2/11
St Mirren to win Co-operative Insurance Cup and finish
bottom of the SPL 16/1
To Win SPL w/o Old Firm
Dundee Utd 5/4
Hibernian 5/4
Motherwell 7/2
Hearts 25/1
To Finish Bottom
Falkirk 8/11
St Mirren 7/2
Hamilton 4/1
Kilmarnock 13/2
Aberdeen 33/1
St Johnstone 33/1
The big game in the SPL is the Edinburgh Derby
Match Odds
Hearts 11/8
Draw 21/10
Hibernian 13/8
In the last 12 matches between these sides no more
than 2 goals have been scored
Under 2.5 Goals 4/7
Over 2.5 Goals 13/10
Under 3.5 Goals 1/5
Over 3.5 Goals 10/3
Total Match Goals
None 15/2
One 11/4
Two 11/5
Three 16/5
Four 6/1
Five 14/1
Six or More 18/1
Both Edinburgh Derbies have ended in draws this season
The final 2 Edinburgh Derbies to be draws 8/1
Which match will produce the most goals?
Rangers v St Mirren 8/11
Tie 11/4
Hearts v Hibernian 5/2
Whic match will produce the most Cards?
Rangers v St Mirren 11/5
Tie 10/3
Hearts v Hibernian 8/1
To Win Scottish Cup
Celtic 6/4
Rangers 13/8
Hibernian 10/3
Dundee Utd 9/1
Dundee 12/1
Kilmarnock 33/1
Raith Rovers 40/1
Ross County 80/1
Old Firm v Rest
Old Firm Winner 2/7
Anyone Else 5/2
All Old Firm Final
YES 9/4
NO 1/3
Non SPL Side in Final
YES 2/1
NO 4/11
Non SPL Side Winner?
YES 8/1
NO 1/20
Kilmarnock v Celtic
Match Odds
Kilmarnock 6/1
Draw 3/1
Celtic 4/11
Handicap Odds
Kilmarnock (+2) 4/6
Tie 3/1
Celtic (-2) 13/5
Robbie Keane made his Celtic debut
at Rugby Park. He has scored at every
ground he has played at (except Ibrox)
since his goalless debut.
Robbie Keane to Score 10/11
Robbie Keane to Score 2 or More 6/1
Robbie Keane to Score a Hat-trick 20/1
Robbie Keane to Score First 7/2
The Scottish Cup seems to be Tony Mowbrays
last chance of silverware this season. Should
Celtic Lose the pressure will be on.
Kilmarnock to Win and Tony Mowbray to
leave Celtic before 5pm Monday 16/1
Will Tony Mowbray be Celtic Manager on first day
of 2010/2011 SPL Season
YES 4/6
NO 11/10
Rangers v Dundee Utd
Match Odds
Rangers 4/11
Draw 3/1
Dundee Utd 6/1
Handicap Odds
Rangers (-1) 11/10
Tie 5/2
Dundee Utd (+1) 7/4
Kris Boyd scored 5 goals against United the
last time these sides met
Kris Boyd to Score 4/5
Kris Boyd to Score 2 or more 11/2
Kris Boyd to Score a Hat-trick 20/1
Kris Boyd to Score 5 or More 66/1
Kris Boyd to Score First 10/3
That last match saw Rangers beat Utd 7-1 for
the Second Time in 6 seasons
Rangers to win 7-1 150/1
Only 2 of the last 16 matches between the sides
has produced less than 3 goals
How many Goals will be Scored?
None 14/1
One 9/2
Two 11/4
Three 11/4
Four 4/1
Five 7/1
Six Or More 17/2
Under 3.5 Goals 4/9
Over 3.5 Goals 13/8
Under 4.5 Goals 2/13
Over 4.5 Goals 15/4
Under 5.5 Goals 1/25
Over 5.5 Goals 9/1
Who will Score the most Goals this weekend
Robbie Keane 15/8
Tie 7/4
Kris Boyd 7/5
Both must start or void
As it looks like the title has been sewn up all the
attention turns to the race for 3rd and the Relegation
Battle
To Win SPL w/o Old Firm
Dundee Utd 5/4
Hibernian 5/4
Motherwell 5/1
Hearts 12/1
To Finish Bottom
Falkirk 11/10
Hamilton 9/4
St Mirren 7/2
Kilmarnock 6/1
St Johnstone 25/1
Rangers to Win the Treble 15/8
(SPL, Scottish Cup and CIS Cup)
Rangers to Win the Double 7/4
(SPL and Scottish Cup)
Celtic to Win the Double 25/1
(SPL and Scottish Cup)
Further information……graham sharpe…0208 918 3731